I was asked to make a prediction, what sort of further immigration changes we will see after the upcoming elections in May. I must say, these are ONLY predictions, but I will try. Assuming -- as I would like to believe -- that the Tories will be out, LIbdems will be too weak and the government will go to some sort of Labour/SNP, potentually, coalition -- will this bring some sort of long-awaited justice and common sense in immigration immediately? Afraid not. But there are at least two major areas I expect the new govt to backtrack on -- firstly, ANY government and indeed I hope even this one, will soon realise that the threats they have made against students right to switch to work routes, will destroy higher education in this country. So I believe not only in continued entitlement of students to Tier 2, but also in return of some sort of analog of Tier 1 Post-study work, similar to OPT provision in the United States. Second major area in which I expect some backtracking, is family migration. I think the 18600 barrier is going to go, and will probably be replaced by -- again -- a two-tiered approach, where it will be entirely waived for long-term spouses of Brits living overseas, and perhaps become a requirement for settlement -- but not initial entry -- for new spouses and partners. I also expect some relaxation of ridiculous post-2012 ADR standards that have so far been met by something like only 5 applicants in 3 years -- I am thinking that they may aim for some sort of concessions for ADRs older than certain age -- say, 80 -- and probably allow resettlement of all those who require day-to-day care for daily tasks (eg potential nursing home residents), so long as the family will show that it will not use NHS funds for such care here. My guess -- I expect this to be a response to JCWI report that underlined that nursing homes arent even a thing in a whole number of huge migrant source countries (india, Russia, Ukraine etc). These are the two major things that I expect, alongside maybe more humanity in enforcement and legality in EU casework. But generally, the reason I expect these concession and not any others, is that these are the two areas that will not meet with popular discontent. No one minds someones 80-year old grandma sitting in their house, and no one minds Oxford graduates going on to work in the City. This isnt what discontent with migration is about.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 12:01:57 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015