***IF YOU WERE TO LOOK AT A NATIONAL WEATHER MAP THIS EVENING*** ONE WOULD SEE PLENTY OF CONFUSION WITH ALL THE LOW`S, TROUGHS & FRONTS! ***I WILL TRY TO SIMPLIFY THIS WITH BASICALLY STATING UPSTATE NY & PENNSYLVANIA IS LOCKED INSIDE A LARGE CIRCULATING/ WET BLOCKING & AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE REGION: ***MORE INTO DETAIL...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY, WHILE A POTENT LOW TO MID- LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY INTO SAT. NIGHT. THIS WILL EJECT A SHORT WAVE/ IMPULSE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS WESTERN/ CENTRAL, NY & THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH/ CENTRAL, PA DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK LATER IN THE MORNING, ALLOWS SOME SURFACE- BASED HEATING, APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FROM THE HOT SUN TO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE WITH AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE VALUES INCREASING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/ KG`S SUFFICIENT TO CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED T-STORMS TO DEVELOP & LIKE EARLIER TODAY...THE SHOWERS & STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A MODEST/ MOIST & UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. **SAT. NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AGAIN, AS SCATTERED SHOWERS & LEFTOVER T-STORMS WILL DECAPITATE & AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50`S TO LOWER 60`S. ***IT WILL BECOME INTERESTING ON SUNDAY, AS AMPLIFIED T ROUGHING ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST & AN INCREASING UPPER- LEVEL JET WIND EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO SOUTHEASTERN, PA NEAR WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE INTENSIFYING JET LIFTS DEEP- LAYERED/ SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM NORTH NORTHWESTWARD AS WARM/ MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP THROUGH EAST/ CENTRAL, PA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN & T-STORMS TO RETROGRADE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING...RE- THREATENING THE POTENTIAL FOR "FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS" IN SOME AREAS. **FROM** STEVE MATTISON...VOLUNTEER SKYWARN SPOTTER FOR THE NWS.
Posted on: Sat, 29 Jun 2013 00:17:08 +0000
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