ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2013 Good morning. Here is the morning view of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 17th 2013.All models show a similar pattern over the coming 4-5 days with the general message being an unsettled one revolving around Low pressure to the West of Britain and High pressure over Europe. There are small scale changes this morning in the shortest term in that the wet weather tomorrow has been pushed further West and will leave the East and SE of the UK in a drier and potentially foggy period tonight as a ridge pushes across these areas later today and a drier day tomorrow than originally thought. Beyond tomorrow the trend is as before with various troughs and Low pressure areas pushing up from the SW delivering periods of rain, heavy at times interspersed with showers and sunny intervals. It will stay mild overall though Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles could stay rather colder for a few more days yet. GFS then shows next week as an unsettled one with wind featuring rather more than currently with gales in places as successive Lows and troughs swing NE close by to the UK. The temperatures would become academic as the wind will temper the mildness of the overall values through most days. There could be some copious rainfall totals at times especially near windward slopes facing SW with just shorter drier and fresher periods in between the rain. Things are shown to dry out towards the SE late in the run but no less mild with a long fetch SW strong flow bringing warm and moist air from the tropics and delivering rain and drizzle to many Northern and Western areas. UKMO closes its run today with a deep Low to the West of Ireland with SW winds across much of Britain with troughs embedded in the flow. These would bring spells of rain North and East across the UK in continuing mild and windy conditions for all. GEM also keeps the changeable and unsettled theme going throughout next week as Low after Low pushes North across Western Britain pulling their troughs NE across all areas with strong winds up to gale force at times with spells of heavy rain and shorter more showery periods in between. There are some signs that the North could become less mild very late in the run as Low pressure anchors more towards the SW. NAVGEM keeps a very turbulent spell of weather over the UK next week as a conveyor belt of Low pressure crosses the Atlantic and crashes into the UK with active fronts and strong winds delivering showers and longer periods of rain to all in temperatures near to or above normal throughout. ECM is a little calmer today despite continuing to show changeable and mild weather for much of next week it offers higher pressure feeding North towards Southern Britain later next week fending Low pressures further to the NW and allowing Southern Britain to become dry and very mild with a weak SW flow. Such improvements look less likely for the North and West as weaker troughs move North and NE afflicting these areas with grey but mild conditions with rain and drizzle at times. As a precursor to this Northern areas may become somewhat cooler for a time. The GFS Ensembles this morning show close agreement on a sustained mild and Atlantic based weather pattern with highly changeable conditions alternating between spells of rain and brighter days with showers. With winds always from a SW direction things would remain mild overall with little likelihood of frost and fog due to the mildness, cloud cover expected and the strength and source of the wind. The Jet Stream driving these synoptics shows a new position much further South than recently over or to the South of Britain through the coming week. Changes are slow thereafter though there looks like at least the possibility of it moving further North over the Atlantic in 10 days or so. In Summary today the mild theme continues with rain at times likely for all. As always in these changeable Atlantic based patterns the heaviest rain will be in the North and West while the South and East might well be favoured for some shorter drier interludes with rather more than that if ECMs output is realised for later next week. All charts from all models point towards above average or average temperatures at worst with little widespread frost or fog problems away from tonight. The pattern looks set for some considerable time with any trend arising from this mornings output showing a shift North of the Jet late next week which though currently speculative would only serve to maintain a milder still and drier South or SW flow over Britain pumped up by higher pressure over Europe. Source and credit ........... norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm
Posted on: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 11:10:38 +0000
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