If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right. -Jerry Seinfeld. I have posted this clip on Facebook tens of times. Its one of my favorite quotes, from one of the best scenes, from probably the funniest show ever on television. But in addition to that, its also thought provoking. Why did I decide to try and book bets in the group this month? Several reasons. One, it got a bit boring for most just placing bets. So, I thought it might spice things up. And it has. Everyone is participating much more. Second, I wanted to try it to see how I could do. Booking bets is the opposite of betting your own bets in many ways. Most of the horses you guys play are horses I wouldnt bet myself. So, it forced me to take a better look at them. By doing that, I should be able to make a better assessment of the horse I bet. Should. But most importantly, and third, I wanted to improve my own bets. I am making very good selections. I always have been able to do that. But I am not maxing out my profit doing so. That is clear in a group like this. So, I need to improve. Lets look at last night to see how that works. In Race 1, I stated that I had rated In Commando and Sing For Me George evenly in terms of chances, while I didnt like Mussels From Brussels that much. They were all pretty close on the odds board, with Sing For Me George the highest and the best value. I also stated that I liked Zeus Lightning a bit in the second, and also Her Name is Lola a bit, but what I didnt mention is that I had Samira Hanover rated with a chance as well. Her Name Is Lola looked terrible on the track and her odds were way too low to play. So, the smart play, when you put all that together, was to play a double with the value, Sing For Me George and In Commando, onto the 3 horses I liked in the 2nd race. And also, since I only booked 10% of Ryans win bet on Sing For Me George, I was basically taking a position that I thought he had a 90% chance to win. For 2 bucks, the double paid 90 bucks. I could have played it for 12 bucks and got back 90. That is 7-1 I gave up on something I had figured fairly accurately. Instead, I played In Commando to show, which was an okay bet relative to the odds of that coming through, but even if he had come through, I play opposite to what I had figured. And clearly, if I was not going to book most of Ryans win bet on Sing For Me George (a watch list horse for me as well), then at those odds (being the 3rd choice) I should have bet him straight to win. At best, I make about 3.50 on 2 bucks betting In Commando, yet I would have made 8.70 for 2 bucks betting Sing For Me George to win. I needed to do the opposite of my instincts. I made that same mistake again with Vance Bayama, The Optimist and Tighten Up. I had them rated as my top 3, evenly, but Tighten up was a short favorite, and therefore, bad odds, so I discarded him. But I played Vance Bayama to show, which was good value and a bet Id make again. However, the right bet was to key both of them in a pick 3 or pick 4, and then build around that. I am clearly betting opposite to what I should be doing, and Garnet has pointed that out. Later on the card, Garnet decided he wanted to start booking bets too. So, he did. He made an astute call on Monte Christo, and he made a quick 100 bucks doing that. But wait. Did he? Not really. He stated that he didnt like Donau at 4-5 and he hated Monte Christo, who was at 3-1. That left the balance of the field at 5-1 or higher, with Si Semalu the 3rd choice at 5-1 and Sunny Beach Day the next one at 7-1. The rest were double digits or higher, and for good reason. They were clear longshots. So, he had value staring him right in the lap. He also played a decent pick 3, but keyed on Sunny Beach Day and then had the 10th locked up and a decent shot in the 11th.But, he had the value locked in in the 9th if he just plays Si Semalu and Sunny Beach Day, and adds a few more in the last, because there was value all over that board. That pick 3 paid 280 bucks for a dollar. Even with an even money favorite in the 10th in Charmed Life. Instead, he took the 100 he made on Monte Christo and he blew his brains out on an late double in which he already had many of the same horses played already on another bet. By booking the bet on Monte Christo, he should have recognized that he had identified better value for his pick 3 in the first place and changed it, and used the money he was going to make on Monte Christo blowing up to load up the last leg of the pick 3. Thereby, booking Monte Christo and taking that edge and converting it to more edge. Exactly what I should have done as well with Sing For Me George, MusselsFromBrussels and Burnin Money. If I had put it all together. Booking bets has two sides. Why you book the bet, and what you can do with that info to make your own bets better. That is the lesson I am learning. Slowly, and painfully. https://youtube/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY&hd=1
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 15:32:36 +0000
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