If the title of this piece reflects the need to address more profoundly the membership question with respect to the newest bride of a political party in Nigeria, the All Progressives Congress (APC), it is for good reason. The days are here with us when whatever conjectural situation that may appear on the Nigerian political firmament, qualifies to be resolved conclusively and timely. This is just as the creative deployment of informed or intuitive guess work, may also prove helpful (even if not always), in peeping into future trends in the nation’s body politic. One of such areas where informed and intuitive guess work provides imme-diate utility is the political destination of not a few prominent members of the Nigerian political class , following the spate of uncommon transformations (thanks to Governor Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom State), in some of our political parties. Of particular interest is the APC. It is easily recalled that just recently the political party played host to 37 members of the House of Representatives who crossed over to its fold from that of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Incidentally these were the former members of the PDP who had launched an earlier, botched initiative to break away under the “New PDP” agenda. Besides they are from states whose governors had earlier switched over from the PDP to APC, technically creating doubts over whether their switch of party loyalties was voluntary, or induced by their godfathers. Citing in-house crises and lack of internal democracy in the PDP, they had invoked Section 68 of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution to justify their action. Meanwhile the same section expressly forbids such a development in the polity. However as Nigerians were still reeling over the profundity of such a Constitutional breach, it became known that the Group 37 (as they are often referred to) had a valid court order to protect them. With this development there was wide spread elation in anti PDP circles, over the open sesame of a comfort zone which the APC now offered, not only to the Group 37, but all others who shared the belly ache over alleged internal challenges of the PDP. Just as well the APC membership transformed uncommonly to feature various categories. These are in the first place the traditional ones who joined through the merger of the defunct constituent parties comprising the Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). Next come the new members who are joining the party freshly and directly without any ‘baggage’. Then come those cross-over governors whose action was easily carried out since they had no Constitutional barrier to stop them. On the heels of the cross over governors comes the Group 37, whose membership of the APC may remain an issue for some time. But for a court order, their action could have enjoyed a predictable course – dismissal from the House of Representatives. Specifically their political future hangs in the balance between the unforgiving provisions of the Constitution and the limit to which the court order survives in protecting them. Interestingly, beyond the Group 37 there are other significant political actors who are not yet in APC but whose dalliance with the party has kept Nigerians guessing. Of note is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s former Vice President whose rapport with the APC is seen as more than salutary. Given his established leadership role of the botched ‘New-PDP’ affair and the personal endorsement of the Group 37 initiative, as well as his personal affirmation of an explorative posture towards the party, many believe it is only a matter of time before he finally ditches the PDP for APC. Not a few observers identify other notional APC members who are still marking time in the PDP as including Dr Babangida Aliyu and Alhaji Sule Lamido, governors of Niger and Jigawa States respectively, who were (and may still be) part of the uncommon transformations that harvested for the nation the present political dispensation. Their reluctance to jump the PDP ship for APC at the last minute has been widely ascribed to reasons that are more self-serving than altruistic. The question of who else is in the APC cannot be fully answered until our span covers the latent loyalists of the party still remaining in the PDP and hiding in the House of Representatives as well as in all likelihood, the Senate. Why their defection has not occurred may not be far from their game of wait and see, in anticipation of what political gains or losses are associated with such a development especially with the 2015 elections so close by. Nevertheless the main event in the defection-by-subterfuge drama is the body language of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, former two time Head of State of this beloved country of ours, one time Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the PDP (BOT), and one of the most favoured beneficiaries of the windfall of political fortunes in this country. Nigerians are coming to terms with his penchant to destroy whatever he finds difficult to control. His recent open romance with the decamping members of the PDP in celebration of their new found accommodation with APC, as well as his public castigation of the Goodluck Jonathan administration, which he played an unforgettable role in bringing to power, hardly cast him before many Nigerians, as a fit and proper person to be trusted not only by the ruling party, but even the APC itself, which may be tempted to do so purely at their own risk. However just as it may be convenient for the APC to celebrate its good fortunes with respect to its membership that comprises strange bedfellows, not a few Nigerians believe the joke is on the party as the bubble may soon burst. A pointer to this is the complement of circumstances surrounding the contrived relief from the court, which provided the plank for the uncommon twist of loyalties by the Group 37, in the House of Representatives. Granted that the court order was procured on the premise of claims of internal crises in PDP, even as by the earlier ruling of another court, there is no such legally recognized internal problem, it remains to be seen how the entire drama will play out in the coming days and weeks. It would seem that all hands will be on deck in the opposition to ensure that a real, sustainable crack emerges in the PDP in the coming days, or a court nullifies the clean bill of health the party now enjoys. The alternative is a reversal of fortunes for the Group 37 and their co-travellers, with attendant drop in fortunes for the APC. The point is not lost that the PDP may have been flat footed in reading the desperation of the Group 37, and anticipating the options the later would easily deploy to beat the system. The sheer ingenuity in timing of the move itself, qualifies the Group 37 for an award. Firstly it is timed to coincide with the end of year holidays, when courts will be on recess to diminish any prospects for counter measures in that direction. Secondly the holidays provide ample window for its members to launch intensive and extensive grassroots reach-out campaigns in attempts to dislodge PDP from its traditional strongholds. However as the APC membership drama unfolds inexorably, one thing is certain. The question of who is in the party at any point in time may not be fully answered in a hurry.
Posted on: Thu, 16 Jan 2014 19:13:49 +0000
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