Im studying but from time to time we get gems of wisdom from our forefathers. Please get a copy of Peter Bernsteins book called against the gods ;) okie lemme share a passage- The Measure of Our Ignorance highlights 1) The recognition of risk management as a practical art rests on a simple cliche with the most profound consequences. When our world was created, nobody remembered to include certainty. We are never certain; we are always ignorant to some degree. Much of the information we have is either incorrect or incomplete. 2.) under conditions of uncertainty, the choice is not between rejecting a hypothesis and accepting it but between reject and not reject. you can decide that the probability is so small that you shouldnt reject the hypothesis and you can decide that the probability is so large that you should reject the hypothesis. This powerful notion separates most valid scientific research from hokum. To be valid, hypotheses must be subject to falsification - that is they must be testable in such fashion that the alternative between reject and not reject is clear and specific and probability is measurable. good evening and pick up the book when you have time ;) lalala
Posted on: Thu, 29 May 2014 14:23:46 +0000
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