Increasing chance of El Nino by Fall and winter. However, over the - TopicsExpress

Increasing chance of El Nino by Fall and winter. However, over the last month, the potential strength of the developing El Nino weakened slightly in the models. Thus uncertainty remains in the potential strength for this winter season. Remember, El Nino does not guarantee more rainfall for California. The El Nino precipitation connection is most noted for strong El Ninos (Sea Surface Temperatures +1.5 or greater) and potential for above average precipitation is likely to be concentrated more over southern California. El Nino only indicates the potential for this pattern of above average rainfall to occur, but they are not certain to occur.

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