It is now open season with Khan and Qadri having clearly pronounced their intention of bringing down the Sharif government. They may not be following a prepared script, but it is apparent that they cannot achieve their goal in a constitutional way. There is no way Imran Khan can force early elections with his party’s relatively small presence in parliament. He certainly would not have the support of any other political party for his demand. Early elections would only be possible if Sharif agreed to dissolve the National Assembly. But why would he do that with no serious challenge emanating from within the house? The only option left to Imran Khan is to increase public pressure through violent street protests. It is a big gamble that may have worked in a cricket match but surely not in the complex game of politics. Let us assume that the PTI is somehow able to mobilise hundreds and thousands of people for a prolonged sit-in and completely paralyse the capital. A protracted stalemate with the government unable to use the coercive power of the state would inevitably lead to complete chaos and anarchy. This scenario would only strengthen the military’s position as the sole arbiter of power. Much before this stand-off, the military had already started reasserting its authority through rising tension with the Sharif administration on Musharraf’s treason trial and a host of other policy issues. The public profile of the military leadership has further risen with the North Waziristan operation. The well-publicised picture of army chief Gen Raheel Sharif spending Eid with his soldiers on the frontline and with the IDPs in Bannu came as a sharp contrast to the prime minister missing from the scene and spending time between his two favourite destinations — Saudi Arabia and Murree. Sharif’s lacklustre attitude has increasingly raised questions about his leadership capability. All that was certainly in Imran Khan’s calculations when he decided to up the ante, declaring war on the Sharif government. However, it is not going to be that simple. The PTI leader seems to be in a hurry to grasp power, but he may not be the winner in the endgame. Army intervention, which he may well be aware of, would not put him on the throne. There is no probability of early elections even if Imran Khan is able to create a situation for Sharif’s exit. It will not be the politicians, but the generals who would then decide the future course. It is yet another episode of the Pakistani political soap opera, a tragi-comedy.
Posted on: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 21:54:42 +0000
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