It is sort of depressing that it is 2015 and much of the weather community still compares model X vs model Y for a major storm. Social media has been lighting up this evening with what the 00Z NAM/GFS/CMC shows, etc.... These deterministic models only represent < 5% of the possible solutions, since there are ensembles for each of these. Throw in the EC ensemble and there are over 100 members/solutions for this storm. Attached are the previous 12z/15z tracks, but the 00Z NAM/GFS/CMC still likely falls within the phase space of one of these attached lines. The question should be how have the probabilities changed for snow > than some amount.. not a GFS vs NAM snow map... As a community we still have not made much progress in this regard (I feel like we are stuck in the 1990s), but there is a golden opportunity here for some young graduate(s) to break the mold and use probabilistic info to make some $.
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 05:38:50 +0000
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