It seems clear that the war will not be over until Israel is able to make certain as much as possible that the military wing of Hamas and Jihad is mortally wounded to the extent that it will not be able to heal. In simple terms, this means that rearming after this war will not be possible in the same way it was after November 2012. Even if these are not presently the defined goals of the war from Israel, this is probably what Israeli is seeking to achieve. At the end of the 2012 war there was no ground operation and even though Gaza sustained more than 1500 air force sorties, the Hamas leadership crawled out of their underground bunkers and declared victory. It will not be so easy for them to repeat that feat. Today there is no Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo that even though forced the ceasefire on the Hamas leadership, continued to provide the opportunities for re-arming – monetarily (with the help of the Qatari brothers) and militarily through the vast network of smuggling in Sinai through the tunnels into Gaza. It seems that the Israeli decision is not to fully reoccupy Gaza and to conduct a Saddam style regime change, even if people like Liberman are pushing for just this. The danger, as I have already written is that forces much worse than Hamas could easily take over the area bring even more disaster to the people of Gaza. Iraq is an example of what can happen. Remember when President George W. declared victory in Iraq? If the operation does in fact weaken Hamas’s ability to control Gaza, because its primary governing arm is al Qassam - the military wing, then the wisest course of action is to adopt the proposal I have already made – the creation of the regional forum for security and stability including Palestine (Palestinian Authority), Egypt, Jordan and Israel. This could be expanded to include the Saudis and some of the Gulf States. The model should be something like the Marshall Plan after WW II. Nazi Germany was destroyed but there was an urgent need to build a peaceful Germany in the center of the new Europe. The US which saw Germany as a mortal enemy understood that the people of Germany has to be healed from the disasters that the Nazis brought to them and without blaming all of the German citizens spent enormous resources to rebuild a democratic Germany. That is how Gaza should be seen. This cannot be done without Israel’s agreement and active participation. A massive amount of international support, with Israel acting as a positive force with generosity of spirit towards the people of Gaza could be pumped into rebuilding Gaza for the benefit of the people of Gaza (and the entire region). The regional forum would oversee the development plans and their implementation. International aid agencies would assist. The Palestinian Authority government would be the partner of the international community. New elections in Palestine would be held as soon as possible so that there would be orderly transference of governance to the people of Palestine themselves. Palestine is one territory – this is what was agreed to in Oslo and now after this war, the territorial integrity of Palestine must be returned. The government body must be one – governing the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. In order for this concept to work, it is essential that the entire Palestinian problem be addressed and resolved. Gaza cannot be treated as a separate entity any longer. It must be reunited with the West Bank and the Israeli occupation must finally come to an end. The international fund for the security and stabilities of Gaza should also be applied to the West Bank and then the security and stability of Palestine as a peaceful and democratic neighbor of Israel would be the outcome. But money alone is not enough. Palestine must be free and the Israeli occupation must come to an end. Negotiations must be resumed – bilaterally and direct between Netanyahu and Abbas under clear terms of reference: Palestinian statehood, demilitarized state, joint Israeli-Palestinian security mechanisms with joint controls and forces in sensitive areas, borders based on the 1967 lines with agreed territorial swaps of about 4% of the West Bank, a plan for reaching open borders and cooperation within five years, two capitals in Jerusalem, refugees rights and options to be determined by each refugee from a list of choices including the permanent option of Palestinian citizenship in the Palestine forever. It is possible to think out of the box of various possibilities for residence rights in one country while having citizenship rights in the other. We need to be creative. But the most important thing is that negotiations be renewed only once there is good faith of the leaders to reach an agreement, without this there is no need for negotiations. And the negotiations need to be led and conducted by the two leaders, not proxies. The US and other mediators can be brought in at the end of the process, when their assistance will be necessary for closing deals, offering bridging proposals and providing guarantees. Until then, they should stay out. On the other hand, the regional forum of Israel, Palestine, Jordan and Egypt is a proper place to come up with additional regional steps for security and stability. There must be a combination of these three essential ingredients: security – demilitarization of Gaza, economic investment in the people of Palestine, political resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These three elements are the package deal that this war must produce and thereby provide the only way of creating a positive outcome from all of the suffering.
Posted on: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 18:58:43 +0000
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