Its obvious whats going to happen. Beijing and the HK Government will continue to criticize the Occupy movement, citing economic costs, but they will let it drag out until students and activists thin out and concentrate in a small area. Then the authorities will tally up the economic costs and use this as a condemnation of the movement, citing how many billions of dollars lost. Shortsighted HKers will see these numbers and be swayed to agree more with the authoritarian side. The movement will lose the support of many. But... If there are no concessions given by Beijing or the HK government, protests will continue, repeat, and repeat, far more extensive than past protests, other than Occupy. Mini occupy events will happen in April, June, July, and again in October, becoming increasingly confrontational, but continuing to demand one thing: Broadly representative nomination. Then finally, when formation of the nomination committee proves that Beijing has no intention of making things broadly representative, Hong Kong will erupt. When nominations take place and we have two strongly pro-Beijing and pro-tycoon candidates, there will be riots. You think OC 2014 was costly? Just wait until you see what happens when we have nominations. I expect tanks in 2016.
Posted on: Thu, 02 Oct 2014 03:35:39 +0000
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