I’m no political pundit and don’t claim the devour the reams of text generated around the elections by all and sundry. However, attempting to make a common man (I dare not use the Hindi term to describe myself!), common sense out of the elections and the strategies of the various parties under contention. Clearly, the UPA has had a disastrous term, and even their best supporters would recognize that they are not going to come back to power, and in fact, they’ll get very few seats this time. So what’s their best hope? That there isn’t a stable government at this time. Maybe there is a coalition of convenience, and which will self-collapse, or which they could engineer a collapse out of, within 2-3 years at most. And attempt to return to power, after cleaning up their act. What do they need to achieve this? Ensure that BJP/ NDA does not get majority. That explains their fundamental strategy of being anti-Modi, anti-BJP, and relatively benevolent to pretty much anyone else, who is also anti-BJP, be it AAP, SP or whoever. “The enemy’s enemy is my friend” is the strategy then. As for AAP, they took the one plank of anti-corruption, went aggressively after Congress and Sheila Dikshit government in Delhi, and made a major impact. Ended up coming to power. But in doing so, saw for themselves an opportunity to launch at a national level. And since that would demand all the energies of the very same people who were in government at Delhi (since they don’t have a large cadre), they sacrificed the Delhi government opportunity, and plunged into the national scene. Now, at the national scene, it was clear that the anti-incumbency factor was well established. And playing on that alone, would not give them differentiation, as all non-UPA parties were going to benefit from that. Any attempt to stay anti-UPA (like they had done for Delhi) and anti-UPA’s corruption, would make them one of many, and the vote may still not come to them. They realized that the biggest beneficiary of anti-incumbency would be the BJP, especially with the very visible Narendra Modi following out there. They reckoned their best chance was to eke out a share of that anti-incumbency votes, from the BJP, and this was best done by taking on the BJP. But they also did not desire to give away their anti-corruption conversation, since that had become a brand image for the AAP. So the best strategy the figured was to take on BJP and also associate them with corruption. Except that BJP had NOT been in power at the centre, and there were not many visible or obvious corruption related stories in states where BJP was in power. So it ended up in a more speculative tone, questioning the funding of BJP and the possible industrial houses that were close to BJP, and how the BJP WILL BE corrupt, should they come to power. A futuristic view on corruption and a current engagement around anti-Modi and anti-BJP, was what they adopted. As for the BJP / NDA, they do have anti-incumbency as a key factor. So they do not hesitate to bring forth, the ills of the present government. And as the most powerful alternate force, they WILL benefit out of this conversation, it is not just theirs to take, if they restrict themselves only to the anti-UPA story. Plus, unlike the AAP, where their best expectation is to make some dent at this point, the BJP / NDA has aspirations to form the next government. And for which, a plain anti-incumbency agenda is clearly not enough. Which is why the BJP / NDA (aka Modi) agenda covers development, governance, jobs, security of the nation, and many other relevant aspects (also reflected in their fabulous manifesto) and which is what connects them to different demography in the country. I mean, when the AAP just keeps talking a one ‘anti-corruption’ message, the citizens do question this with: - realistically, can the party drive out corruption? So maybe it is just a fancy poll campaign story, - what beyond that? How do they plan to generate jobs? What’s their approach to national security? - Do they have any really capable people who can hold critical offices? Sure, the bureaucrats do the work, but even to get work done from bureaucrats needs an understanding and an ability - And really what IS their vision? From the feel one gets, it points to a socialist / communist bent of mind. And really, that’s not worked in the world, and we don’t want to go back to it. It’s been proven that while not the perfect model, capitalism at least gets you growth as a country, creates jobs, creates prosperity for many, and takes the country forward. - A communism / socialism vs capitalism, is an entirely different debate, which then needs to be played out at a different level, and not camouflaged under the garb of anti-corruption It is with this broad purview that I have made my choice. I am not in favour of giving the UPA a chance to come back in 2-3 years owing to a coalition that will collapse under it’s own weight. I want to see beyond a one-line manifesto around anti-corruption, I want to be sure I am not dragged back to communism or socialism. I would like to support a government that thinks development, creates jobs, thinks of merit and not just reservations, has innovative approach to solve the country’s problems, ranks national security high on its priorities, has a set of smart leaders who can take on key roles in the cabinet, has a strong leader who will stand up to international trade and political pressures, who will work towards good governance. Yes, I support the BJP for 2014, and I hope they form a good, stable government under the NDA, come May, 2014.
Posted on: Sun, 20 Apr 2014 06:17:56 +0000
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