JTWC is tracking this, but its only an advisory right now. WTPN21 PGTW 121700 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121651Z NOV 13// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 121700)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 125.1E TO 10.2N 118.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 124.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 121140Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS ALSO SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS AND ISOLATED 25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131700Z. // NNNN
Posted on: Tue, 12 Nov 2013 18:36:35 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015