Jonathan and the Northern hurdles AZA MSUE President Goodluck Jonathan is flying the banner of the the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in next month’s presidential election. Apart from the stiff opposition from the All Progressives Congress, APC, Jonathan has many issues to settle, even within his party before the much awaited polls. AZA MSUE, takes a look at the president’s uphill task if he must realise his second term dream. President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari have emerged presidential candidates of the respective parties, the Peoples Democratic Party,PDP, and the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress, APC, for the February 14 presidential election. For President Jonathan, despite his emergence as sole candidate of his party, there are political maneuvers in his favour and against, and these may impact either way on his chances in the February polls.. Just like the 2011 presidential elections, Jonathan’s splitting headache ahead of the elections will be in the Northern region. PDP’s presidential primaries was not tough for Jonathan, but the general elections would be. And, Jonathan has a painstaking task to change tactics and adopt more convincing strategies to woe Northerners and assure them that his presidency is different from that of Northern political class who has failed and impoverished the region. Though, as the political activities signalling the 2015 elections gather momentum, President Jonathan’s worry would be how to gain the support of the North. Political pundits are of the view that before and after his election in 2011, President Jonathan did not applied the right strategies that can win the hearts of the people of North. Political watchers believed that with the emergence of General Buhari as APC presidential candidate, there is no doubt President Jonathan still have the running political battle with majority of Northern political class who are bent on power rotation. There is general believe that Jonathan’s attention appears more skewed to the ‘politics’ of the battle that he has forgotten himself and ways to win over the Northern ordinary people, who make up the majority of the Northern populace and are the most important weapon for the battle. On the other hand, Jonathan has taken advantage of the fact that the leadership of the North and the Northerners are no more on the same page and thus, if he wins the hearts of the people of the North Central popularly known as Middle Belt and other minority Christians who have being marginalised in the past by core Northerners, who stood by him in 2011, they may still vote for him in 2015. Observers suggested that for Jonathan to win the hearts of core North, he has to take careful development decisions to solve the political problem he is facing in the region. Though, he has taken some steps in that direction, they are not enough.These include the almajiri modern school programme, agricultural transformation programme among other initiatives. Many are of the opinion that, another way Jonathan can endear himself to both the Northern political class and ordinary Northerners is making use of the historic political relationship and alliance between the North and the South- South. It appears surprising that the political alliance between the North and the South-South is at its lowest ebb at a time a Niger-Deltan is occupying the presidency. The main problem between President Jonathan and the North for now is the incessant killings being carried out by the dreaded Boko Haram sect. The North believed that the present administration lacks the political will to flush out Boko Haram. They opined that only a president of Northern extraction can solve the menace. The impeached governor of Adamawa State,Murtala Nyako, stirred the hornet’s nest, when he wrote a letter to the Northern Governors’ Forum, NSGF, accusing the President Jonathan-led Federal Government, committing genocide in the North, under the guise of fighting Boko Haram. Nyako’s letter spoke the mind of many Northerners. But, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe, lambasted Nyako for daring to challenge President Jonathan, saying Nyako did not deserve to be a governor, given his utterances and he was impeached over alleged maladministration and corruption. The man, Jonathan President Jonathan, was born on 20 November 1957. He served as deputy governor and then governor of Bayelsa State, following the impeachment of Diepreye Alamieyeseigha .He was later to became Vice-President of Nigeria from 2007 to 2010. Jonathan emerged president following the death of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010. Jonathan contested the 2011 presidential elections under the platform of PDP and won the 2011 presidential elections against other Northern candidates in the opposition parties. This time around, for Jonathan to win in Northern states, he has to approach the North through political manoeuvring that requires reaching painstaking political agreement and concessions. Politics, they say, is all about give and take. The unwritten rotational presidency The election of late Yar’Adua as the President was a product of many factors. One of the main factors was the unwritten agreement of power rotation between the North and South, which many observers see as undemocratic, but its proponents and supporters described idea as the only way-out for all parts of the country to taste power. Since the declaration of President Jonathan for 2015, political gladiators in the North are busy putting their political machinery to action by building networks and strategising for the 2015 presidential election. There is strong feeling within the political class in the North, that the region must produce the next president in 2015, based on the rotational agreement, but most observers are quick to remind the political elites from the North that during the 2003 elections which was the turn of the South to complete its eight years in power, the same North fielded candidates to seek the office of the President. However, Northern political leaders and elite are not about to give up the claim of the North to the Presidency in 2015.They are insisting that the Presidency should return to the North after President Jonathan would have completed his current term. Chieftains of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF; Northern Elders’ Forum, NEF; Arewa Reawakening Forum, ARF; Arewa Research and Development Project,, ARDP; Northern Union, NU; Middle Belt Forum, MBF; and the Code Group, at a meeting in Kaduna last year resolved that it will not be in the interest of the region for Jonathan to be reelected in 2015. In a statement issued and signed by Baba Hakeem, a retired federal permanent secretary, they said: “We all insisted that the North must produce the President in 2015. The parley was called to discuss the state of the North at a time like this. Though the major issue we wanted to discuss was the security situation of our part of the country today, the various contributors spoke of the need for the North to be politically re-awakened if it is desirous of solving its security problems. “We observed that the North has never been this divided. We have never been this disorganised. And after examining the reasons for our division, it was discovered that the 2015 presidential ambition of the President, is behind the crises in the North, hence, it was resolved that in the interest of the North and the country as a whole, the North should insist on fielding a candidate that will emerge as the next president of the country in 2015.” Asked what would be the reaction of the region should the ruling party refuse to field a Northerner, he said it was decided that the North should go all out and ensure that it deploys its numerical strength to produce the next president. Another source told National Mirror: “Our position is very clear on this renewed demand. There was an agreement on rotating the presidency and now, we want to warn that if the parties to the pact fail to adhere to it, the North would use its numerical strength to ensure that power returns to it in 2015. That is the position arrived at the meeting. “The meeting is just the first of many more that will follow. This is not about ACF or NU or the Middle Belt. It is a new, more vibrant mass movement that was not planned but emerged to redirect the North. We are not making the idea public yet because we don’t want it to be hijacked or infiltrated. We will keep it close until we achieve the level of mobilisation we desire. The statement insisted that: “But as I said earlier, chieftains of all leading organisations in the region were part of the discussion in Kaduna and they all endorsed the new direction that will see us insisting on producing the President in 2015. Another reason why we are not out there talking about it yet is the current mood of the nation. We don’t want to be seen as talking politics while the nation burns. But we must talk politics.” Several months ago, Niger State governor and chairman of NSGF, Babangida Aliyu, claimed that President Jonathan entered into an agreement with governors on the platform of the PDP to serve for a term. Aliyu, made the claim during an interview with a Kaduna-based radio station, Liberty FM, during the emergence of newPDP. Aliyu in the interview said PDP governors had a single-term pact with Jonathon. According to the governor, it was on the basis of the said agreement that he and some of his colleagues in the ruling PDP supported the President in the 2011 presidential election. He said: “What will be, will be in 2015. We must remind people of the promises they have made. When he (Jonathan), was going to declare, governors of PDP were brought together to ensure that we were all in the same frame of mind. Some of us, given the PDP zoning, were expecting that the Northern states would produce the President for these number of years but God has done His own. “At that discussion, it was agreed that President Jonathan would serve one term and we all signed and when he went to Kampala, he said the same thing. But for now, President Jonathan has not declared his candidacy and we must not be speculating. I believe that we are all gentlemen enough and when the time comes, we will all sit down and see what the right thing to do is.” Jonathan and his relationship with the North President Jonathan’s relationship with the North seems not to be cordial since his emergence as President after the demised of late President Yar’Adua. To buttress this, recently, the ACF the umbrella organisation of Northerners, disowned all Northerners serving in the government of President Jonathan, saying it is disgusted with them. A communiqué issued by the Rapid Response Committee of the forum, stated that the North is ‘disgusted’ and disappointed with its sons and daughters in the present government for being passive to the prevailing situation in the country. It said: “ACF as an umbrella body for the North feels highly disgusted and indeed embarrassed to note that Northerners actively serving in the Federal Government in very high positions not only remain passive but are collaborating in the mis-governance, ineptitude, financial recklessness and mindless corruption in the country. This should not be so, but posterity will certainly be the best judge.” The ACF called on the National Assembly to reject the request by President Jonathan to extend the state of emergency in the North-Eastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe. The call has become pertinent as previous extension of the emergency rule only worsens the security situation in the region. “The meeting also deliberated on President Jonathan’s request to the National Assembly to extend the state of emergency in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states for the fourth time. It observed that previous extensions of the state of emergency had proved to be total failures and in fact made worse. The ACF, therefore, urges members of the National Assembly to totally reject the request from the executive.” The communiqué, signed by the ACF Secretary General, Col. John Paul Ubah (rtd) added: “The meeting further deplored the deteriorating security situation in the country and the inability of the government to provide minimal security to the citizenry. On November 25, suicide bombers attacked a popular Maiduguri market, killing about 30 people and injuring scores of others. All these call into question the Federal Government’s capacity, willingness and sincerity in prosecuting the insurgency war and bringing it to a speedy end. It appears that Nigerians are being pushed to the wall to defend themselves in desperation. “With regards to the forthcoming general elections, ACF has resolved that elections must hold under all circumstances and in every part of the country. It also stressed that all pending cases in court relating to President Jonathan’s eligibility to contest in the presidential election must be concluded before December 18, 2014, being the deadline for submission of names to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. This is extremely important for the survival of democracy in Nigeria.” Although, one of the pro Jonathan’s groups in the North, Northern Elders’ Council, NEC, led by Kano State-born politician, Alhaji Tanko Yakassai, has vowed to deliver the region to President Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo in 2015. Yakassai had said that for peace to reign in the country, particularly in the North, Jonathan/Sambo should be voted into office again for the stability of the polity, noting that NEC was also established to protect the socio-economic and political interests of the North, as well as the corporate existence and stability of the nation. According to him, “the NEC applauds the excellent working relationship between President Jonathan and Vice President Sambo, as the political leader of the North, Sambo has shown total loyalty and dedication to Mr. President. We urge them to continue to work together in harmony in the interest of our nation “We are ready to partner groups and individuals from all parts of the country who believe in dialogue, mutual respect, harmony and peaceful co-existence. Jonathan’s chances in the core North Religion and ethnicity are the major factors that will play a major role in 2015 presidential elections in the North. Jonathan’s chances for now, are also bright among the Northern minorities. It could be minority solidarity in 2015. As bright as it may seem, political watchers are of the view that the Northern minority who voted enmass for Jonathan in 2011, have not gotten any tangible benefits from the Presidency except continued killings by unknown gunmen. But Plateau,Taraba, Benue and Kogi states may back Jonathan. Available statistics indicated that the North-Central zone has 11 million names on the voter register. Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno states have always gone to Buhari, while Adamawa seem to be for Jonathan. With the defection of former governor of Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff, to the PDP, Jonathan may get tangible votes in that troubled state. Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be considered a loss to APC. But, Buhari may win even some PDP states in the North, like Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa and Kebbi. Although, Vice President Sambo’s emergence as Jonathan’s running mate in 2015 may change voting pattern in Kaduna State but not the entire region. As Nigerians match toward 2015 elections, the political game will be interesting to watch by actors and spectators.
Posted on: Thu, 15 Jan 2015 07:37:10 +0000
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