[Junio, 17] Informe original del conjunto NOAA, USAF y U.S. Dept. of Commerce. ClimaEspacial.net/informes-solares.html ------------------------------------------------------------- :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2013 Jun 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 16/1020Z from Region 1769 (S23E24). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 16/1908Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 15/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun). III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun Class M 10/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jun 116 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 006/008-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/15
Posted on: Mon, 17 Jun 2013 08:38:06 +0000
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