Just came back from a week-long trip to Moldova. We talked to many officials, policy-makers, observers and foreign diplomats. We also had the chance to talk to a high-ranking official in Tiraspol, capital of the Russian-controlled breakaway region Transnistria. Some impressions: -> The economy is unaddressed but is key. The country is very poor (3,800 USD income per year, plus some shadow economy). It sells agricultural products to the EU and Russia and sends huge amounts of migrant workers to both sides. The only important local sources of income are smuggling and other illegal activities. Surprisingly, none of our interlocutors talked about the need to attract foreign investment.There is talk of a growing IT sector, though. -> No strong patriotism or sense of citizenship. The majority is Romanian-speaking and western-leaning. But important minorities are Russian-speaking and Russia-leaning. Both sides are rather hostile to the other. -> Russia plays a huge role and has enormous leverage. Transnistria is occupied, has 1.500 Russian soldiers on the ground. Gagauzia in the south and other regions in the north are potential levers for Russia inside the country; they favor Eurasian integration over EU integration. Russia is not an outside player: they are already here. Moscow can close its markets and send workers back. -> Energy is key: Utilities are a huge burden for Moldovans, the country pays more for Russian gas than Germany; some people move to Transnistria which gets Russian gas very cheaply and whos government relies on some murky schemes related to gas. Transnistria has an unpaid gas bill of some 5 billion USD which Russia could demand from Moldova. -> The political system is weak: parties are networks of power controlled by businessmen. They can easily switch their programs. The political system itself hasnt much resilience. -> The EU is an important player as it pays for a considerable part of the budget and serves as a counterweight to Russian control. But the EU is frustrated as the country is not really embarking on reform (only on the surface), and there is serious doubt about the will and the ability to implement the association agreement and the free trade agreement, both to be signed on June 27. -> Everybody speculates whether Russia is going to go for direct or indirect control of Moldova. After Crimea, there are no more rules, says a former high-ranking politician. He thinks that Russia wants to control the Black Sea down to Romania. Many expect Russia to come with troops to Moldova and to cut off at least the southern part. But Moscow can as well do a lot without hard power, just by using its leverage and activate its networks. -> We didnt hear much about a best case-scenario: Russia staying out of the country and Moldova committing itself to real reform. The best case seems to be that Moldova can somehow continue to muddle through. -> Disappointment, passivity, lack of hope: this seems to be the mood. People dont feel that they are really driving their fate, they feel like an object of policies rather than their driver. More than two decades of independence and no progress. -> Building a strong economy and a strong state would take a lot of time and energy. Its easy for Russia to prevent this by denying access to the EU. Poor and hopeless, Moldova can continue to serve as a buffer zone between Russia and the EU.
Posted on: Mon, 19 May 2014 08:41:24 +0000
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