Kabir M Muhd Wrote: Let’s break it down into simple Maths. - TopicsExpress



          

Kabir M Muhd Wrote: Let’s break it down into simple Maths. Jonathan had a good spread scoring 25% or more in 31 States. Buhari managed to score 25% or more in 16 States and yet got a cumulative result of over 12 million votes. A good Mathematician should be able to help us here because I wish to show our President’s handlers that they will pay heavily for complacency if they assume and take it for granted that they can beat Buhari easily like PDP had always done in the past. Let me explain it further. A man who won d mandatory 25% in about half of d States secured by the President still went ahead to poll over half of what d President got. Now ds is the tricky part. Let me begin with the most obvious. Buhari had only 37.96% in Adamawa while Jonathan had 56%. d registered voters were 1,816,094 but d voter- turnout was a miserable 49.98%. With d way d country is right now, PDP would require a miracle to win Adamawa with a landslide. If Buhari secures d APC ticket, it is almost certain d he would clean up that State. And in case d voters turn out much bigger, it means that State can wipe off some of d deficits Buhari suffered in 2011. The two leading parties can still jerk up about one million extras which won’t be a bad idea even if PDP still gets 25% or more. Let’s walk across to another interesting State, Bauchi where Buhari recorded 1,315,209 against Jonathan’s 258,404 despite d avuncular presence of PDP Governor, Isa Yuguda. d registered voters here were 2,523,614 but only 1,610,094 voters chose to vote with nearly 1,000,000 voters hibernating somewhere. I hope you’re patient enough 2 follow ds Maths lesson. Benue would certainly be a major battle ground ds time 4 d candidates because the State has over 1.3 million voters (out of a total registration of 2,390,884) buried somewhere 4 d strongest candidate to resurrect. Here ethnicity and religion would play critical roles more than ever before. It is presently a virtual PDP State with Jonathan polling 694,776 against Buhari’s 109,680 & ACN (Nuhu Ribadu) 223,007. Benue had always been a State of enlightened voters and it may swing in favour of a serious candidate. Let’s keep moving & find somewhere to land in d troubled spot of Borno State. This is a treasure ground with 2,380,957 out of which more than half of d voters have absconded & vanished into thin air. In 2011, Buhari 909,763 against d President’s humble 207,075 votes. Now this State is under fire but is NOW largely controlled by d new alliance known as APC. Let’s saunter across to Gombe where Buhari scored 459,898 against Jonathan’s 290,347 votes out of a total registration of 1,318,377. All d parties combined recorded 770,019 voters. d implication of this is that if this State decides to be generous, it may dash out about 548,358 votes. We are still moving and scavenging 4 d votes wherever they are hiding. Let’s say some quick Hello to our Brother, Governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, who couldn’t hold Buhari down despite his equally tall physique. Here Buhari polled 663,994 against Jonathan’s 419,252. Total votes cast came to 1,140,766 out of 2,013,974 total registrations. Do not say I told you, this State has some 873,208 unseen registered voters probably perambulating as we write. This journey is still long & arduous. Kaduna is a major war zone for d candidates because of its peculiar characteristics. Buhari’s supremacy was hotly challenged as Jonathan polled 1,190,179 against Buhari’s 1,334,244 votes . Total votes cast were 2,569,963 out of 3,905,387 total registered voters. Now wait for the good news of the kingdom; this beautiful State has 1,335,424 voters that it can conjure whenever needed or ready. If you think Kaduna was super, please, wait for the almighty Kano where no serious candidate can play silly pranks with the energetic & fearless Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso. In 2011, Buhari massacred Jonathan with 1,624,543 against 440,666. d then Governor and Presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau even scored more than d President with his 526,310 votes. d total In all, 1,639,532 voters performed their civic duty out of 3,126,898 registered voters. Please, permit me to fast forward to the State of the Sokoto Caliphate where a floodgate can still be opened. Strangely, Buhari pulled merely 540,769 shots against Jonathan’s 309,057. A total of 909,808 voters came out of 2,267,509 registered voters. No one is able to explain this anomalous situation to us properly but some 1,357,701 unseen voters may decide to show up in 2015. Please, bear with me, you must be getting tired but we need to do this together because of my over-confident friends in Abuja who must have had F9 in Mathematics like me. Let me now give you the shock treatment and take you straight to the biggest theatres of war. I must warn that this not for the faint- hearted. Welcome to the heartbeat of Nigeria known as Lagos State where Jonathan polled 1,281,688 against Buhari’s 189,983 and Nuhu Ribadu’s 427,203. Wait for this, only 1,945,044 voters turned up out of 6,108,069 voters. In effect, Lagos can, in its true majesty, produce additional 4,163,025 out of its bag of magic. I wish there was space to display all the figures but it won’t be possible. But let me continue with the random sampling. Many of d States won by Jonathan or PDP or both, depending on why you voted in 2011, are not so easily available at this time. Take Oyo for example under the control of APC beyond the next Presidential election may prove too tough to handle. Only 863,544 out of 2,572,140 voters appeared in public but we don’t know the whereabouts of 1,708,596 potential voters. Ogun State is another interesting territory where 543,715 people voted out of 1,941,170 who registered to vote. Meanwhile, the largest turnout of voters was recorded in areas controlled by Jonathan but let’s examine the figures. Abia has used up 1,188,333 out of 1,524,484; Akwa Ibom 1,232,395 out of 1,616,873; Anambra 1,157,239 out of 2,011,746; BAYELSA 506,693 out of 591,870; Cross River 726,341 out of 1,148,486; Delta 1,398,579 out of 2,032,191; Edo 621 out of 1,655,776; Ebonyi 502,890 out of 1,050,534; Ekiti 261,858 out of 764,726; Enugu 814,009 out of 1,303155; Imo 1,409,850 out of 1,687,293; Kwara 414,754 out of 1,152,361; Ondo 486,837 out of 1,616,091; Osun (lost by Jonathan) 512,714 out of 1,293,967; Rivers (the largest State in South South) 1,854,116 out of2,429,231 and so and so on. This should give you a fair representation of what is at stake in the 2015 election. Politics is not exactly Maths but it is still a game of numbers. Those who think an incumbent President cannot be defeated should wake up from their self-induced coma. The mood of the Nigerian nation is very similar to that which swept Obama into power. Lagos and Kano combined account for 11,135,366 registered voters out of a grand total of 73,528,040. Only 38,199,219 people voted in all the States. There are 35,328,821 floating somewhere. Most of them are comfortably resident in APC States. My free advice to the Jonathan campaigner is simple; stop projecting our President as a sectional leader whose only qualification is where he comes from. Stop raining insults on Northerners and avoid maligning innocent Muslims. The religious card you wish and hope to play will never play out in favour of President Jonathan. You should concentrate on projecting the positive work and his Transformation Agenda. A President is the father of the nation. A lot of damage has been done by portraying him as a victim who’s derided by everyone except his own. The President’s handlers should worry more about how the goodwill of 2011 got frittered away in such a jiffy. Above all, they should urgently search for competent Maths teachers. Believe me, the figures are no longer adding up.
Posted on: Tue, 21 Oct 2014 06:18:33 +0000

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