LEHAR Current Status Current Wind Speed 55 knots / 63 MPH Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / 63 MPH at November 27, 2013 4:00am TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Land Hazards No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm. TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Tracker + - wind (knots) < 35 35+ 64+ 83+ 96+ 113+ 137+Powered by Leaflet — Map tiles by Stamen Design, under CC BY 3.0. Data by OpenStreetMap, under CC BY SA. LEHAR Satellite Loop TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Alternate Tracking Map Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms. TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Spaghetti Models Spaghetti models for Lehar can be found here: LEHAR spaghetti models page » TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Watches and Warnings Watches and Warnings are currently only available for NHC tracked storms. TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Tropical Cyclone Update TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Public Advisory WTIO31 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (LEHAR) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (LEHAR) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 84.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 84.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 15.8N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.0N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.3N 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 84.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (LEHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ACCELERATED TOWARDS THE COAST OF INDIA WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REFLECT THIS DECREASE IN CONVECTION, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05B REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 18 WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE LLCC BY TAU 36. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DETERIORATING, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN MSI. BASED ON THE GOOD GROUPING OF MODEL AIDS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// NNNN Public Advisory not available for this storm. TROPICAL CYCLONE LEHAR Forecast Discussion Forecast Discussion not available for this storm. LEHAR storm path from JTWC Time Speed Location Status November 27, 2013 4:00am 55 knots 14.8, 84.7 November 27, 2013 4:00pm 45 knots 15.8, 82.5 dissipating November 28, 2013 4:00am 35 knots 17.0, 80.5 dissipating November 28, 2013 4:00pm 25 knots 18.3, 79.0 dissipated Hurricane Forecast | Tropical Storm Risk | Hurricane Spaghetti Models | Hurricane Watch | Hurricane Names Cyclocane | National Hurricane Center | Joint Typhoon Warning Center (mirror) | Japan Meteorological Agency Want to help support this site? Tell your friends about Cyclocane Help Hayley pay the web hosting bill by buying something through this Amazon Cyclocane link Play some Free Freecell
Posted on: Wed, 27 Nov 2013 16:43:31 +0000
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