“Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world” -Napoleon Bonaparte. In the closing decades of the 20thcentury, the United States enjoyed a truly ‘unipolar moment’, a decade unchallenged in military and economic strength as the world’s sole superpower. But according to one of Australia’s analysts, a future century will not see a resurgence of American domination. Napoleon’s prophecy of a reawakened China shaking the world may be taking form. The author of this important analysis is Dr Benjamin Herscovitch, a Beijing-based Research Fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies (CIS). His research paper is entitled ‘Preserving Peace as China Rises.’ Looking at Chinese defence outlays Herscovitch claims they will likely exceed Western Europe’s by 2024, and the United States’ by the 2030s. CHINA’S AIR DEFENSE IDENTIFICATION ZONE (ADIZ) AND THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS DISPUTE - https://scmp/sites/default/files/2013/11/27/b3e25813c74de1b6ec8eb95e24543ca2_0.jpg The paper argues that China will soon possess the power to challenge the US position at the pinnacle of the international system, with China’s ascent likely to ignite tensions across a range of geostrategic flashpoints, from the Korean Peninsula to the South China Sea and the Indian Subcontinent, Beijing’s territorial ambitions are butting against the claims of China’s continental and maritime neighbours. Herscovitch’s arguments follow the widely quoted tribune of voluntary US stand down in Asia Professor Hugh White. US leadership in the Indo-Pacific region and East Asia has secured relative peace and stability since World War II. Herscovitch claims key Asian powers are responding to China’s rise with a combination of increased military spending, the establishment of pre-emptive defence positions, and deepening security ties with the US. One of them, South Korea, may even be beginning along a slow turn towards Beijing. The traditional Chinese wisdom is that: one mountain cannot abide two tigers. In a path-breaking study ‘Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust,’ co-authors Kenneth Lieberthal (one of Americas leading China specialists) andWang Jisi (one of Chinas leading America specialists) explain the underlying concerns each leadership harbors about the other side. The authors concluded thatBeijing and Washington are gripped by ‘strategic distrust,’ according to the CIS paper ‘Preserving Peace as China Rises.’ This ‘strategic distrust’ is manifested in three broad areas: the vastly different political systems; uncertainty regarding strategic intent; and the dramatic shift in the regional balance of power. Dr Herscovitch looks at the portentous argument of Professor Hugh White that perceptions of US unwillingness to follow through its rhetoric about ‘pivoting to Asia’ to act as a credible strategic counterweight could unleash a toxic wave of instability and militarization. https://twitter/michaeldanbymp/status/448268626894667776 Strangely, echoing the alarmism of Hugh White US military position could have the effect of pushing the US and its Indo-Pacific allies and partners towards conflict with China. Herscovitch argues this tension was already present before the implicit encouragement weak Western responses have given to China, following the Russian seizure of Crimea. As the saying goes, “when a wolf cries wolf you still see the teeth” and while Beijing may get its strategic way through growing economic power and the elusion of time, as its military might grows, Beijing will presumably not tolerate, for example, ongoing de facto Taiwanese independence. Preeminent Chinese leader Deng’s cautious approach to territorial disputes had a crucial caveat: Beijing is willing to defer contentious territorial disputes and concentrate on areas of mutual benefit only for ‘a while.’ Then let us hope that Chinese strategic demands are not insatiable and better yet, that the widely held hope that economic liberalization in China will eventually lead to democratic liberalization and hence to the integration of Beijing in an international rules based system, such as negotiations over disputes in the East Chinese and South China Seas via the law of the Sea Conventions. Putin’s insolent seizure of Ukraine-Crimea may however be having the opposite effect inside the Communist hierarchy in Beijing. Hard liners in the Chinese military (the PLA) must be arguing inside Beijing’s hierarchy that NOW is their moment. Taipei is yet to seriously rearm and with the current President of the US reluctance to engage in military responses, may mean the dominant view in Beijing is over this next three years of Obamas Administration is the time to act and seize Taiwan. We will then see if the world, and a weakened US, allows the powers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (China and Russia) to continue to use military aggression to seize disputed provinces and countries. https://twitter/michaeldanbymp/status/448268643801915392
Posted on: Sun, 06 Apr 2014 02:43:16 +0000
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