Looking Toward 2014 – Another Bat As soon as the Royals were eliminated from the playoff picture, Ned Yost started looking ahead to next year. His first comment was, “We need another bat.” I have to agree with him. Kansas City scored three or fewer runs 83 times in 2013 – more than half its games. The Royals were 22-61 in those contests, a winning percentage of .265. That’s not bad, considering. But that also means Kansas City went 64-15 in games it scored at least four runs, for a winning percentage of .810. That’s way better. Now look at Cleveland, a reasonable comparison because the Indians have a similar payroll to Kansas City, they were the Royals primary rival in the chase for a playoff spot and, like the Royals, they don’t have Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder to power their offense. The Indians were 17-53 in games they scored three or fewer runs, a winning percentage of .243. The difference in winning percentage isn’t so significant as the number of games – Cleveland was held to three runs only 70 times, 13 fewer than Kansas City. Take those 13 games and apply the Royals’ winning percentage in games in which they scored at least four runs, and the Royals have six or seven more victories, enough to make the playoffs if not win the Central Division. The question is, how does Kansas City come up with this bat? Next to starting pitchers, power hitters are the most expensive commodity in baseball. Cleveland, for example, paid $11 million for Nick Swisher’s 22 home runs and 63 RBIs in 2013. There is another side to that coin, however – power hitters are such a sure thing that any team would benefit from such an expenditure. Detroit is in the playoffs this year because of Fielder and Cabrera, not because of Justin Verlander. Texas, a World Series team with Josh Hamilton, isn’t even a wild-card team without him. Still, there are only a couple of teams that can afford the $300 million, 10-year deal that Curtis Granderson is seeking. Even guys like Chin Soo Choo and Nelson Cruz are likely to be too expensive for the Royals. Besides, it’s going to take a bonafide crusher to hit 30 home runs while playing half his games at Kauffman Stadium. Swisher, for example, had 49 at-bats this season at The K, and 0 home runs to show for them. So maybe GMDM looks for a 20-25 homer guy who makes up for the difference with OPS and defense – a guy like San Francisco’s Hunter Pence, who I thought would be a good match until the Giants signed him to a long-term extension last weekend. The Royals really have only two positions open, and maybe not so open at that – second base and right field. Emilio Bonifacio may fill the second base vacancy, although more by default than accomplishment. Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella haven’t been able to make a one-way trip from Omaha to Kansas City, and Christian Colon may still be a year or two away. David Lough has been solid in right field and would have the job if he had more power, and mid-year acquisition Justin Maxwell will get a long look in spring training. At the same time, The Royals need to figure out how to utilize Jarrod Dyson’s speed. If the Royals can’t upgrade either of those positions, they may have to improve what they already have, and there certainly is room for that. I love Mike Moustakas because he plays the whole game with everything he’s got, but he simply needs to be more productive at the plate. Word from the Royals is that he will be spending the winter in Venezuela working on his swing, and I hope it helps. Alcides Escobar could also make use of some extended work on his hitting. He hit .293 last year, then fell to .234 this past season, and although the evidence suggests that his 2012 season was the exception, I think he can get back to .290. He started the 2013 season well, but his average plummeted after May 5. I wonder how he would do as a switch hitter (how much of a risk would it be to try it over a winter league season?). Billy Butler started slowly but got close to .300 by the season’s end, but not only did his home run production drop, so did his doubles. I don’t know what happened to his power stroke, but Kansas City needs more from Butler than singles. The point is, if the Royals can get the kind of production they got from Escobar, Butler and Moustakas in 2012, then this team is really in pretty good shape for 2014. As I posted earlier, that’s why I think it’s important that the team make its first priority that of finding a batting coach. Consistency and production at the plate – moving runners up, driving in runners on third with less than two out – will push those three-and-under games into the win column and into the postseason.
Posted on: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 11:42:56 +0000
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