Looks like this last storm will do it for the north state for a while even if we dont get anymore rain for an extended period, which is not what its looking like. More rain or chances of are forecast in the next 10 days. HOWEVER... SoCal is a whole nother story! SYNOP: DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... .DISCUSSION... ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN COOL DAYS AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCAL GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES INTO THE DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOTE: THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. Fuels/Fire Potential: Large fire potential will remain low through the rest of the week due to relatively cool temperatures and humid conditions. But a dramatic change in fire weather is expected early next week due to potential for gusty offshore winds. The desert areas will see temperatures plummet on Sunday, but downsloping winds will allow for RH to drop into single digits over many areas west of the mountains Sunday afternoon or evening. Gusty, erratic east and northeast winds may reach the coastal plains by Sunday evening or Monday, including many urban interface regions of Southern California. The dry and gusty winds will allow for all dead fuels to become highly receptive to ignition Sunday and Monday. Live fuel moisture is still critically low over most areas below 6,000 feet over Southern California, especially on the open and south aspects. Expect wind-driven fire behavior to be possible with long range spotting potential during the height of the offshore wind event Sunday evening and Sunday night. IA will likely reach moderate levels Sunday and Monday. Additionally, since this will be gradient driven wind event, low level wind shear may hinder the use of air resources Sunday and Monday. Shifting, erratic winds may occur Tuesday afternoon as the flow turns back onshore. IA will likely drop significantly by the middle to latter portions of next week SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: GREY NO RATING NOV 16- 17 MODERATE Extended Outlook: SAT thru WED Coast and Coastal Valleys.... Strong offshore winds possible Sunday & Monday . Inland Valleys and Surrounding Foothills... .. Strong offshore winds possible Sunday & Monday Mountains (Excluding the Sierra Range:... .. Strong offshore winds possible Sunday & Monday Sierras… No significant fire weather expected Deserts:... No significant fire weather expected ******************************************************************************** In short a moderate wind event is forecast for parts of SoCal for Sunday- Monday causing extreme fire danger.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Nov 2014 16:38:57 +0000
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