Looming government shutdown could have wide-ranging impact WASHINGTON — If the federal government shuts down next week, a development that appeared increasingly likely Thursday, it could have a wide-ranging impact on Arizonans. Whether it amounts to an annoyance or serious financial hardship could depend on how long the partial shutdown lasts. If it’s just a few days, most Arizonans probably won’t even notice. But a longer shutdown could prevent people from receiving unemployment checks, getting passports, applying for veterans benefits, obtaining gun permits, visiting the Grand Canyon and applying for loans to pay for college, buy homes or help small businesses. Many of the approximately 55,000 federal employees who live, work and spend money in Arizona would be furloughed without pay. Whether they would recoup those wages when the government reopens remains unclear. Arizonans who serve in the military — including those on active duty in Afghanistan — would stay on the job without paychecks while the civilians who worked with them were furloughed. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., warned of the impacts in a speech on the Senate floor Thursday as he urged lawmakers to avert a shutdown. “If the federal government closes its doors, seniors applying for Social Security and veterans applying for disability could be forced to wait until federal workers return to their posts,” Reid warned. “Across the country, mortgage loans and small-business loans could be delayed. Members of the United States military could be forced to defend this country without even a paycheck as thanks. And billions of dollars will drain from the economy every day the government is closed for business.” But House Republicans vowed Thursday that they won’t simply accept the stopgap legislation that is likely to remain after Senate Democrats strip away a plan to dismantle President Barack Obama’s health-care law. And a sense of confusion settled over the House, both over how to avoid a shutdown and how to handle even more important legislation to increase the government’s borrowing ability to avert a default on U.S. obligations. Short of votes, House leaders shelved a vote that had been expected this weekend on the debt-limit measure and gave frustrated GOP lawmakers few clues about what they plan to do to avert a shutdown. Washington faces two deadlines: the Oct. 1 start of the new budget year and a mid-October date — now estimated for the 17th — when the government can no longer borrow money to pay its bills on time and in full. The last time the government shut down, for 27 days in late 1995 and early 1996, it cost the economy about $60 billion in today’s dollars, Reid said. The cost to the government alone was about $2 billion in today’s currency, according to a recent report by the Congressional Research Service. Much of that cost was from the government winding down operations and then ramping back up when the shutdown ended. So, why is Congress on the brink of doing it again? It comes down to an ideological battle over the Affordable Care Act, the 2010 health-care law better known as “Obamacare.” Republicans, especially those in the House, view the law as a massive government takeover of health care and want to repeal it and replace it with a plan of their own. That’s unlikely to happen as long as Democrats are in the majority in the Senate and a Democratic president sits in the White House. So, House Republicans have latched onto a spending resolution aimed at keeping the government open past Monday, when fiscal 2013 ends. Last week, they attached a provision to that resolution that would fund the federal government through Dec. 15 while stripping the Affordable Care Act of its funding. The resolution passed the House and has been sent to the Democratic-led Senate, which is poised to pass a resolution today that keeps the government open but does not touch Obamacare. Most Democrats view the health-care law as crucial to providing affordable medical insurance to people who have none. Once the Senate passes its funding resolution, the measure will go back to the House. House members will then have to decide whether to approve, reject or revise the Senate bill. If they reject it, the government will shut down on Tuesday. The same thing would likely happen if they sent a revised bill back to the Senate. The gridlock stems from the fact that Congress has grown more divided as fewer moderates have been elected and more ideologically driven politicians on the right and left have taken their place, said David Rohde, a political-science professor at Duke University. “The two political parties have become so polarized that it becomes harder and harder to produce a piece of legislation,” Rohde said. “The price they are willing to pay for their ideology is huge — including shutting down the government.” Both parties are blaming each other. “As they did in the ’90s, today’s radical Republicans have called for concessions they know Democrats will never agree to,” Reid said. “The Senate will never pass, nor will President Obama sign, a bill that guts the Affordable Care Act and denies millions of Americans access to lifesaving health care. ‘Tea party’ Republicans have demanded the impossible and vowed to shut down the government unless they get it.” Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., blamed the Democrats. “The liberal media and the Democrats have demonized and mischaracterized this exercise of Congress’ constitutional power over the purse as an irresponsible and futile attempt to shut down the government,” Franks wrote in an op-ed in Thursday’s Washington Times. “Mr. Obama is threatening to shut down the government, not the Republicans.” If the government shuts down, it would be a partial closure that exempts federal employees who are deemed essential to protect the health and safety of people and property. In Arizona, that includes Border Patrol agents along the U.S.-Mexican border. An estimated 59 percent of non-defense federal employees would be exempt from the shutdown and would go to work as usual, according to a USA Today analysis of 119 shutdown contingency plans filed with the Office of Management and Budget. Those plans were filed in 2011 when the federal government nearly shut down. Agencies that don’t rely on annual funding for Congress also would continue to operate normally. That would include the U.S. Postal Service and the Federal Highway Administration. In Arizona, state officials are skeptical the shutdown will really happen because Congress has managed to avert several previously threatened closures at the last minute. John Arnold, director of Gov. Jan Brewer’s Office of Strategic Planning and Budgeting, said he called state agency directors, “and everybody’s dusting off their books on what to do.” “A lot depends on what the feds do and how long it lasts,” Arnold said. The many state agencies that use federal funds could keep operating in the short term, using cash on hand, Arnold said. For example, Arizona’s unemployment-insurance program is funded by local contributions from employers, so those dollars would continue to flow. But administration of the program is paid for by the federal government. So, it might be closed because there would not be anyone to run it if the shutdown was a long one, Arnold said. Officials also were preparing for a possible shutdown of Arizona’s signature natural attraction — the Grand Canyon, along with other national parks. Jessica Kershaw, a spokeswoman for the Department of the Interior, which oversees the parks, said the agency is making plans “for executing an orderly shutdown.” “This planning is consistent with what was done in previous instances where a potential lapse in appropriations was approaching,” she said. “The specific details of those plans are still under development and review.” During the 2011 budget showdown, the agency planned to close all national parks, including the Grand Canyon. An October shutdown would come after the park’s busy summer season has ended and shortly before the North Rim begins winding down for the winter. Still, the Canyon has averaged more than 350,000 visitors each of the past 10 Octobers. That’s more than 10,000 people per day, and the biggest losses would likely come earlier in the month, especially on the first weekend. Julie Aldaz, general manager of the Red Feather Lodge outside the park, said the lodge remained booked through the middle of October, though a shutdown is already creating problems. “We have seen some cancellations, and that’s what they say,” Aldaz said. “It’s scary because it’s our last three weeks to make our income.” John Tatham, president of the Grand Canyon Chamber of Commerce, said businesses in the area have not received advisories about a closure. Many of the tourists at the Canyon this time of year are foreign visitors who probably aren’t following the situation in Washington closely anyway, he said. “In Tusayan, we’re doing fine,” Tatham said. Arizona and the Grand Canyon served as an entertaining sideshow during the last government shutdown in 1995-96. Then-Gov. Fife Symington marched to the Canyon with unarmed National Guard troops in a dramatic bid to keep the park open. Although largely for show, it did lead the Pentagon to warn that it might bring the Guard under its control. Arizona paid $370,000 to keep a portion of the park open during the shutdown, though the money was ultimately returned. Arizona travelers also could be affected by a shutdown in passport services. An official with the U.S. State Department said Thursday that the agency could not say how passport applications would be affected. In 2011, however, it planned a wide-ranging shutdown. “For all practical purposes, passport offices will be closed for the acceptance of new applications,” the agency said in a release at that time. The impact of the potential federal shutdown at military installations in Arizona is uncertain. “Right now, since we don’t have word on what’s going to happen, we haven’t taken any actions,” said Staff Sgt. Angela Ruiz, spokeswoman for Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Tucson. Base leaders are awaiting guidance from the Pentagon, she said. As many as 900 civilian employees at Luke Air Force Base in Glendale could be furloughed, said Brig. Gen. Michael Rothstein, commander of the 56th Fighter Wing the base. “We’re going to coordinate with our higher headquarters up to the DOD (Department of Defense), trying to get down to a discreet name-by-name list of who would be furloughed if that were to happen,” he said. The specific number of employees who would be affected depends on how many are deemed to be essential. Meanwhile, military personnel would continue to work and earn pay, but they wouldn’t be paid until after the shutdown. Because Air Force personnel typically get paid at the middle and end of each month, they may not even notice an interruption, Rothstein said. Republic reporters Mary Jo Pitzl, Ronald Hansen and Paul Giblin and the Associated Press contributed to this article.
Posted on: Fri, 27 Sep 2013 20:09:45 +0000
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