MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/N TX...EXTREME SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151813Z - 152015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN. SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z. DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD/DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX WITH MODEST SE/SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN PORTIONS OF N TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES OF 1000 - 1250 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTN AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINES WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER/LOCALLY GREATER HEATING. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES CENTRAL/NRN TX AND SRN OK...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KFWS REFLECTS A STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS/SRH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LIMITING THE OVERALL THREAT.
Posted on: Sat, 15 Mar 2014 18:21:45 +0000
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