MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...ERN KS...WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281626Z - 281800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO INTO NE OK. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 18Z DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING UNDER BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING N/NE ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. WHILE CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING STRONGER SFC HEATING...MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG/ WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION REMAINING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KT OVER KS/OK WEAKENS WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO BUT WILL INCREASE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SE KS ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKER ECHOS ALSO DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM INTO NE OK AND WRN MO. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. ONE OR MORE BANDS/CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A QLCS LATER TODAY ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MO...WHERE STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONGOING BOWING FEATURE ACROSS NW OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NE OK.
Posted on: Sat, 28 Jun 2014 17:54:45 +0000
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