.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR KIDS AND OTHERS WANTING TO GET OUT THIS HALLOWEEN. THE MAIN WX ELEMENTS WILL INCLUDE RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...AND THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOW A STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE HEADED FOR THE MID STATE WHICH WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT WX HAS BEEN DRY...SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. BUT SOME FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN ACCUMULATES AND HEAVIER SHOWERS ARRIVE THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH THE RAIN...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS. THE OHX VAD INDICATES WINDS AT THE 3-4 KFT LEVEL ALREADY GREATER THAN 60 KT. THE RAIN AND WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO STAY DRY... RENDERING UMBRELLAS INEFFECTIVE AND PERHAPS DESTROYED. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR DECORATION MAY WANT TO CONSIDER TAKING THEM INSIDE TO AVOID LOSS OR DAMAGE. REGARDING SEVERE STORMS...OUR TIMING OUTLOOKS REMAIN UNCHANGED...WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS STARTING NEAR THE TN RIVER AS EARLY AS 4 PM...ALONG I 65 BETWEEN 6-9PM AND TOWARD THE PLATEAU AFTER 8PM. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWS ABOUT 15 PERCENT RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS AND 2 PERCENT FOR TORNADOES. APPROPRIATELY... THIS IS A LOW END SLIGHT RISK. THE RAIN WE ARE EXPERIENCING TODAY IS REDUCING THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE WX. STILL...AS THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM COME TOGETHER...WE MUST MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY FOR SOME BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO.
Posted on: Thu, 31 Oct 2013 16:17:56 +0000
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