MODEL PLAY-BY-PLAY: FIRST UP, THE NAM North American Model And theyre off. And I hesitate to even post this model, as it only goes out 3 1/2 days, and is generally only reliable in the first day or two(up to 48 hours). The bigger American model run to watch is the GFS model, which is due out within the next 30 minutes. That one will be more telling. Does it continue the trend towards snowier and move towards the European from this afternoon, and if so, by how much? For the record, tonights NAM model has a more offshore solution, and keeps us in the lighter snow, with the heavier snow up towards Cape Cod and eastern New England. Do I put much stock in this model? No I dont. Not because it doesnt show lots of snow, but because its the NAM model beyond 48 hours, and its known for its poor performance in this time frame. In fact, regarding this past storm today, the NAM model had a lot more snow and ice forecast in its normally superior forecasting range, and it ended up being mainly rain. So the NAM is batting leadoff, and I think it struck out(both for snow lovers, but also in model performance). Onto the GFS...stand by...
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 03:27:39 +0000
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