MODI MYTH By Vijay Kala Adnan Abidi/Reuters An attendee at Narendra Modi’s rally in India’s capital city Sunday, held a mask of the BJPs prime ministerial candidate. People who back Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi for India’s next prime minister invariably cite how he has turned his western state into an economic powerhouse. Some scholars, however, now argue the glories of Gujarat have been exaggerated and its outperformance is hardly the result of any special Modi magic. Big believers in Modi’s mojo were out in force in the capital this weekend. Tens of thousands of NaMo supporters showed up to hear him speak in New Delhi Sunday at a political rally organized by his party, India’s main opposition party Bharatiya Janata Party. Mr. Modi’s supporters say he can use what he learned as chief minister of Gujarat since 2001 to get India’s sagging economy back on track. Thirty-three year old web designer Yashpal, who goes by only one name, showed up to the Modi rally on Sunday because he believes in what he can do for the country. “The way he has developed Gujarat, he will completely transform the country,” he said Sunday at the rally. Leaders of Indian industries have also lauded Mr. Modi’s leadership, saying the way Mr. Modi has been able to build infrastructure and reduce the perception of corruption has helped the state shine. However new research in the Economic & Political Weekly, a scholarly journal, suggests otherwise. While Gujarat is one of India’s richer states, the report said, it has always had one of the country’s strongest economies and there is limited evidence to suggest that Mr. Modi did much to add to its outperformance. Mr. Modi may have simply been riding on the back of historically strong growth, the report suggested, in a state that had been a shining example of India’s industrial development even decades before he took charge? The report’s authors –R. Nagaraj, a professor at the country’s prestigious Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research in Mumbai and Shruti Pandey of EPW Research Foundation – said Gujarat’s performance relative to other states over the past couple of decades in areas such as agriculture, industry and social development has been relatively stable. “Contrary to popular and political perceptions, in none of the indicators has there been a measurable improvement in Gujarat in the last decade relative to the national average,” the article says. “There is no evidence of Gujarat’s share (of the nation’s GDP) surging ahead of the rest of the country as popularly believed.” While Gujarat’s agricultural output has increased faster than other states in the last decade it may have just been recovering ground it lost in the 90s, the authors said. They said its share in the nation’s industrial development has also climbed to account for 14% of the country’s industry, up from around 11% in the early 90s but much of that increase came from a few petroleum refining plants in the state. If you take out petroleum refining, the contribution of the rest of manufacturing industries has actually declined in the state, the report said. On social development, measured in terms of literacy rate, infant mortality and life expectancy, the research said that Gujarat has maintained its 7th rank among 17 major states between 2001 and 2011. In other words, on these important measures it hasn’t improved its position relative to other states. A recent study by a government-appointed panel also pokes some holes in the Modi myth. Last week, the report categorized Gujarat among the “less developed” states in the country, the middle of three categories. The panel, which was tasked to suggest methods for identifying struggling of states, ranks Gujarat 17th among 28 states, the 28th being the most developed. The states of Goa, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand and Haryana were all categorized “relatively developed,” in the report. The findings and timings of the reports in the run-up to general elections next year could ruffle some feathers among Mr. Modi supporters who say the government has been trying to discredit his achievements. A spokesman for Mr. Modi’s party, the BJP, did not reply to requests for comments. As India heads toward national elections, scheduled to happen before the end of May, the debate about Mr. Modi’s economic record will only get hotter. And as the country struggles with a weak currency, slowing growth and stubborn inflation economic credentials are set to become one of the most important issues for voters. –Vibhuti Agarwal contributed to this post. Like India Real Time on Facebook here and follow us on Twitter @WSJIndia.
Posted on: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 06:46:37 +0000
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