Malema’s fantastical plans no hindrance to winning votes Carol Paton, 26 July 2013, 05:30  Julius Malema. Picture: MARTIN RHODES The EFF has already taken steps to avoid getting bogged down in contests over positions and factional battles, writes Carol Paton  Share Article: Among its pillars are expropriation of land without compensation; nationalisation of the mines and banks; the abolition of the tender system in government; and protected industrial development. On a more sensible level, it also advocates free quality education, healthcare, houses and sanitation; an open and accountable government and society; and a commitment to the development of Africa. A fake Twitter account in the EFF’s name summed all of this up as a promise to deliver "food, mansions and dragons" to the poor. But although it has a fantastical programme, the reality is that EFF stands a very good chance of gathering a significant number of votes. Five factors point to why this could be so. The first is that the message of the EFF resonates profoundly. The narrative that SA is a wealthy country, in which resources are being unfairly monopolised by the already rich and the political elite is highly persuasive. With poverty and wealth both so starkly visible, there has always been room for resentment over inequality. But place that in a context in which, after 20 years of democracy, people have begun to realise that neither they nor their children are likely to ever reach those levels of prosperity, and the stage is set for the EFF’s entrance to be welcomed. This growing sentiment is increasingly being vented and last year’s labour strife and the escalation of community protests over service delivery across the country are the tangible evidence of the discontent. These events had much in common. The grievances of those involved in the events was less about their absolute poverty — the proportion of people living in poverty has declined since 1994 — but more about the relative deprivation they felt and the injustice of their situation. For mineworkers it was that, to take home R4,000 to dig rock in dangerous and unpleasant conditions while mine owners are earning millions, was clearly unfair. On the farms, it was the realisation by young educated seasonal workers that their life chances would not amount to much. The conflict showed how easily the tinderbox could be lit and that a credibility gap between people and their leaders had been quietly growing. The second reason for the EFF’s probable success is that it is well organised. Within a month of making its Leninist call — "What is to be done?" — on June 11, the fighters had convened a national meeting, decided upon leaders in every province and published their names, phone numbers and e-mail addresses on Twitter and Facebook. The regional co-ordinators report that they have been flooded with inquiries and it is expected that, by this weekend, when the EFF holds its first "national assembly", the movement will have representatives in every ANC region. As the EFF would know from Lenin’s teachings, organisation is everything in politics and is the centre from which all else follows. By this week, the EFF had published its manifesto and was preparing to launch its logo and party policies at the gathering in Soweto this weekend. Compare this with Mamphela Ramphele’s newly launched Agang, which had to be coaxed into saying who was associated with the party. To join the party today, you are offered a variety of e-mail forms to complete — but, unlike the EFF, there are no signs of a recruitment campaign. The third factor in the EFF’s favour is social media and the easy access of almost everyone to a cellphone. These make it possible to organise events with a minimum of time and expense. In the case of the farm worker strikes in the Western Cape, cellphones made possible a level of swift co-ordination that could never have been contemplated before. Fourth, the EFF is a canny political operator and has already taken steps to avoid getting bogged down in contests over positions and factional battles. No elections for positions will be held until after the national elections next year. A quasi-military "command structure" that is already in place will be the leadership structure that runs the EFF and instills discipline. The fifth reason for the likely success of the EFF is that it has a litany of ANC mistakes off which to feed. While President Jacob Zuma looks like he has survived the Nkandla scandal so far, once Malema and his crew begin to put the message out in terms that only they can, voters are not likely to be untouched by the sheer greed and abuse of power that is involved. Some of the ANC’s other mistakes — the Rustenburg and Carletonville mineworker uprisings; its endorsement of a rigged provincial conference in the Free State before Mangaung; the heavy-handed response to protests in Sasolburg, Ficksburg and Balfour; the ANC’s stance against the "poo-throwers" in Khayelitsha — will have devastating consequences for local support. It is no accident that these are the areas the EFF has chosen as the first in which to campaign. The survey evidence also looks good for the EFF. Pondering Panda, a market research company that conducts surveys through the cheap SMS platform, Mxit, in June — only two weeks after the "What is to be Done?" call — found that 26% of respondents between the age of 18 and 34 would vote for the EFF tomorrow, compared with 35% for the ANC and 15% for the Democratic Alliance. While this kind of market research is new to SA, it is growing enormously throughout the world and enjoys widespread credibility. Pondering Panda says its methodology has been verified and surveys benchmarked to find a very high level of accuracy with traditional opinion-poll type research. There are, of course, some large obstacles in the way of the EFF. The first is whether it can survive without the charisma of Malema, should he ultimately be convicted of a crime and sent to jail. While no individual is ever indispensable, Malema is more indispensable than most. It is he who crowds come to see and he who has a turn of phrase so audacious that it gives his words extraordinary power. It will be a case of how able he is to build a movement in a very short space of time. A lesser problem is the source of money. While the ANC is accustomed to spending millions of rand on campaigning, the EFF needs little more than a couple of cars, a few cellphones and a sound system to get its message out. The EFF says this will be its strategy: no need for posters and pamphlets or venue hire. An open piece of ground or a local stadium will do the job just as well. The third threat is the force of the ANC’s election machinery. The ANC has already indicated it is going to take on the election with huge numbers of volunteers, who will visit every house in every neighbourhood in every township of the country. Once this machine gets going, those 26% of youth who are predisposed to the EFF will have their loyalties tested with the glitz and glamour and the sense of belonging that the ANC electioneering creates so well. All of this will make for an intense contest, transforming what might have been an apathetic turnout into another vibrant election
Posted on: Fri, 26 Jul 2013 06:30:53 +0000
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