Me comenta Jm Mac Martín que el servicio de noticias de la euro zona que dirige Wolfgang Münchau (sí, el mismo que escribió alabando a Podemos en el Financial Times), referencia hoy mi artículo de ayer en Piedras de papel. Lo pego aquí: Podemos and the leftwards slide of the political center: In the the first of two posts in El Diarios Piedras de Papel blog, Sebastián Lavezzolo looks at the evolving ideological stance of Spanish voters against the backdrop of the economic and political crisis in Spain. The salient feature so far is the rise of Podemos not only as a threat to the bipartisan system but potentially as a government party. It has been observed that centrist voters have withdrawn support from the major political parties and gone massively towards abstention in the crisis years. Looking at the historical series of CIS official opinion polls, Lavezzolo finds that the ideological self-description of Spaniards has been trending left since 2009 but especially strongly since 2011 which saw the emergence of the indignados protest movement and the counter-reaction to the PPs general election victory. Conventional models of partisan politics assume that competition is decided on the median voter. But Lavezzolo observes that the median-voter model of political contests assumes that the ideological landscape is fixed and parties compete passively for the voters favour. Lavezzolo contends that when Podemos speaks of occupying the centre of the political board they mean not trying to appeal to the median voter but actively trying to change the political preferences of the Spanish public so that the median position moves towards Podemos. And that means that Podemos pull on voter preferences may in turn force PP and PSOE to change their own stance to chase the leftwards-moving median voter. Podemos war is not to win next years general election, but a regime change, concludes Lavezzolo.
Posted on: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 09:41:03 +0000
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