Mild air in the region until tomorrow evening, with a thunder threat as winters brief return approaches. If you like warm air -- the good news is that tomorrow will offer us the warmest air since late December as temperatures should make a run into the mid 60s for Philly and points south, perhaps even milder if we can get some sunshine. Low pressure is modeled to track to our north tomorrow afternoon and evening, which puts us into the warm sector. This means less rain for the region as well (not a bad thing given the ground is pretty soggy), although it provides a rainy scenario for areas with extensive snow cover on the ground to our north and west. Some stream flooding is possible across Central and Northeast Pennsylvania from the milder temperatures, rain, and resulting snowmelt. One byproduct of having the low to our north is that the trailing cold front that moves through tomorrow afternoon and evening will bring a risk of thunderstorms with it. A couple of quasi-reliable computer models (Canadian one of them) is firing up a line of thunderstorms that marches east through the region late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours. It could present a risk for gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and perhaps some small hail. The resulting frontal passage will mean business -- temperature could drop 20-25 degrees in a 3 hour window tomorrow evening as the front moves through -- timed to move through around 8 PM although some guidance has it moving through later than that. The NAM, pictured in the third of the graphics in this set, suggests a later passage. Regardless, temperatures drop quickly from the 50s/60s into the 30s, then bottoming out in the 20s by Thursday morning with a stiff west and northwest wind. Winters not completely over...but its next visit will be brief. As for the snow threat at the end? There could be some wrap-around snow showers north and west of Route 222 late tomorrow night and early Thursday. Any coating accumulations or beyond will be confined to the Poconos and North Jersey hills.
Posted on: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 12:30:00 +0000
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