Monday Morning (short/moderate post): First things first: This morning at my home in Gunter we set two all time world records: 1. As I write this, we are witnessing an all time record high for a freezing temperature. 32. 2. Also, last night we set an all time record for lowest wind speed ever recorded. Calm. Ponder that while I now get into weather reality: -I still believe the models and mainstream mets are way too warm with the temps this week, and are washing the cold out of here way too quick. -I am confident in more Winter precip this week than the models and mainstream mets are, because I believe it will be colder and the cold will be in place longer. -I believe northeast TX is being overlooked for a potential ice storm later in the week. Im growing more concerned about that possibility every hour. -The western half of Texas, north of I-10, should see light to moderate Winter precip beginning Tuesday and lasting into Thursday. Could be snow, sleet, and freezing rain. -North TX into southern OK could see ice/sleet mid-late week, and I believe that possibility is more real than is currently being forecasted by the mainstream. Before then, freezing drizzle is a real possibility. -On Friday I think the temps will warm up slightly over a big area, that many will be a little above freezing. Friday will probably be just rain for a big area. -The main system pulls into the state of TX sometime Friday as a cold core low (which I talked about yesterday). I believe there could be a pretty big snowstorm stretching from west TX, into the TX panhandle, into OK, and into north TX come Friday into Saturday night. Exactly where, when, and how much remains to be seen. Man it has a good look right now. Will definitely have to keep my eyes on it. -Keep in mind that our freezing rain setup for mid-late week is very dicey. Its always dicey anytime freezing rain is in the forecast. We will have a thin layer of cold air at the surface, and warm, moist air riding up on top of the cold air. The models cant see that cold air at the surface so theyre calling for rain. Im anticipating that cold air so Im calling for freezing rain. Remember, 1 degree off in any direction can completely blow a rain/freezing rain forecast. At 32 its freezing rain, but at 33 its just plain ol rain! My forecast is dicey for freezing rain, and the mainstream mets are dicey for rain. Well see who wins.
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 15:46:26 +0000
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