More trouble for Zambia. Copper prices have fallen 14.4 per cent this year, including 10 per cent in the past month. On 30th April 2013 I wrote an article Zambia is Vulnerable where I argued that theres a copper price storm coming for Zambia. On 23 July 2013 I wrote Zambia and falling copper prices where I flagged up more risks and warned that we need to be fiscally prudent and have sufficient fiscal space to handle the coming storm. On 14 October 2013 I wrote Budget 2014: Summary of Readers Comments where I summarised your views that Zambias 2014 budget is broken because it does not take into account the serious possibility of falling copper prices in 2014. On 5 February 2014 I wrote Zambia Copper Risks where I argued that it is now too late. Copper is facing the longest slump for two decades. I warned that the Kwacha will suffer terribly. On 27 February 2014 I wrote Deficit woes, free falling Kwacha and more borrowing! This highlighted that the fundamentals are weakening. And a key fundamental is Chinas slowdown and its impact on copper prices. On 10 March 2014, I repeated the warnings on my 5 February 2014 article withZambia Copper Risks, 2nd Edition These articles can be found on the Zambian Economist website and this Facebook page. I am quite satisfied that Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda has had all the warnings. I certainly sounded the alarm and I know many others did. Zambia is in a mess because Chikwanda has CHOSEN to make it a mess. It is nothing to do with ignorance. It is wilful negligence on his part.
Posted on: Wed, 19 Mar 2014 20:13:25 +0000
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