My article for the Times of India on voter turnout in the city. Rather than jump to conclusions, it would be much better to study the data. Blaming middle-class absenteeism may be a diversion from the real problems. A poor understanding of voter turnout ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Lets say there are 1000 voters in a voting booth, but only 550 show up on election day. Is that enough to conclude that the other 450 are middle-class IT types who have gone on vacation, and cannot be bothered to involve themselves in democracy? Certainly not. But thats exactly what is happening. There is an unquestioning willingness to believe that all the absent voters are from the middle class. Is that true? Has anyone tried to confirm this? Yes, someone did check, but he couldnt find any evidence to support this theory. After the last BBMP elections, P G Bhat from SmartVote, who has looked at the election data longer and harder than anyone else, examined the data. He came to the conclusion that there is no reason to believe that voters in poor neighbourhoods participate at higher rates in elections than their fellow-citizens in middle class areas. Thats a pretty remarkable thing to discover. Someone should tell the newspaper editors writing all those headlines about holidaying techies that they have got the facts wrong. And heres one more thing. Out of the 1000 voters on the roll in any election booth, you can be sure that about 100 or so dont really exist. Karnataka has one of the worst voter rolls in the country. Dead people, those who have left town, duplicates, and all sorts of other entries are abundant in the voter roll. Other states have cleaned up their rolls considerably, but even when this was pointed out to the authorities in Karnataka, they have turned a blind eye. Even court orders to improve voter rolls and participation are ignored. Until we clean up the roll, therefore, it will be difficult to tell what the true percentage of voter participation is. Lets return to the question of the absent voters. We have been told repeatedly that the middle class doesnt bother voting because it feels elections have nothing to do with how the system works. Really? All the evidence in this election suggests that middle class aspiration may be the most important thing driving voters choices. If anything, poor people are more likely to conclude that elections dont change anything - in the lives of the poor, nothing really has changed. We need to study the voting numbers more carefully, along with good socio-economic data, and figure out exactly who is not voting and why. Theories about patriotism, duty, responsibility, etc. are not substitutes for real data. Lets remember one thing. Around the world, in many of the richer countries, it is the poor who are absent from elections, while the middle class votes enthusiastically. We need to ask ourselves whether that reality may be taking shape in India too. As the economy grows, is it possible that the middle class feels its voices for choices are more and more important, but the poor begin to believe that voting makes no difference? That would be a worse tragedy than the poor already suffer. At least elections give them the hope that their voices matter equally. If they conlcude that promise is an illusion, our democracy would be the worse for it.
Posted on: Sat, 19 Apr 2014 03:48:48 +0000
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