My evening analysis on Bertha.... Tropical Storm Bertha, has max winds of 45 knots/50 mph, pressure has fallen a bit to 1007 MB, She is moving west-northwest at 21 knots/24 mph. Her strongest winds are to the east northeast of her center, clear evidence of the wind shear that is impacting the system. On satellite Bertha is a bit more organized, in spite of the moderate shear, and dry air that is still an issue. If you had been watching my webpage, you wouldve see Bertha move over the Lesser Antilles near Martinique. Tonight Bertha is developing heavier thunderstorms that are trying to form around her center. By tomorrow afternoon, wind shear will drop off...becoming lighter...5-10 knots. So she could develop into a strong tropical storm before she encounters the higher terrain of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.(the storm should pass near Puerto Rico Saturday), this very well could more than offset any increase in strength due to lower shear.....also dry air will still be an issue. The Trough that will be in place along the East Coast, should recurve Bertha away from the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
Posted on: Sat, 02 Aug 2014 00:27:35 +0000