My full card picks for Saturday, Good luck everyone!!!! Churchill Downs Saturday May 3, 2014 Race 1 6-2-8-1 RESULT 8-6-2-7 6 PROSECUTION caught a sloppy track last start but still finished a close up 2nd, decent tactical speed. 2nd 2 UPKEEP was scratched from yesterday’s undercard and may fit better here, returns to a mile where he has finished 2nd twice in 2 starts; class drop could help! 3rd 8 DOCTOR PETER gets Calvin Borel in the irons and makes 1st off claim, has the speed to figure in mix and comes off a win vs non 2 lifers at OP. WINNER!!!!! 1 TRACE CREEK beat similar starter allowance company last start and could repeat today since he did not have an all out effort. Race 2 5-7-8-3 RESULT: 1-3-4-5 5 DEMANDER has decent back speed when breaking maiden 2 back and could be tough if he can race back to it. Closing speed. 7 ROCKFORD needs to improve off his last speed figure but has some decent back speed and running style fits. 8 UNSTOPPABLE COLBY is an early runner who can improve with return to a route, should be stalking early pace or even setting it and the class drop could help. 3 SHEIKINATOR gets blinkers for the first time and figures to improve with the 3rd start off layoff. Back speed was decent 2 back though on a muddy track, late closer. 2nd Race 3 2-10-9-1 RESULT: 1-2-8-10 2 REEDER is a 2nd timer that showed some early foot to finish a close up 5th in the debut. 2nd 10 BOSS GONE also makes his 2nd start after a bumped start in the debut and figures to improve 4th 9 COASTAL MOON was fractious and then off slow in the debut but can turn things around with this 2nd start. 1 MASOCHISTIC ran a close up 5th at SA in the debut and is another that is not without a shot today. WINNER!! Race 4 10-1-7-3/4 RESULT 2-7-1-5 10 KYRIAKI draws outside and enters off a close up 4th where she was beaten by a length, makes 3rd off layoff and 3rd try at this non winners of one condition. Presser. 1 ABUNDANTLY CLEAR is making her grass debut but gets seasoned turf jock Castellano in the irons, draws rail winning at a 31% clip. 3rd 7 FLASHY GAL is 5 for 8 on grass and is another who is coming off a lengthy layoff, Catalano barn is decent with bringing them back ready and figures in the mix with Joel Rosario in the saddle. 2nd 3 MAGICAL STEPS always gets a piece with a record of 6 ITM finishes for 10 turf starts, could win this with best. 4 KIMALLOSA broke maiden last start on turf and has been rested 10 months, may take a piece if ready today. Race 5 7-1-9-11 7 THUNDERGRAM broke inward and was bumped in the G1 Arkansas Derby last start finshing 12L behind winner and Derby contender Danza. Has the speed to make it to the winners circle today. 1 WATERY MOON showed good closing speed to break maiden at first asking, clearing the field by 4L and may be able to repeat. 9 JESSICA’S STAR early runner has hot the board in all 3 career starts and broke maiden on the slop 2 back posting a decent seed figure, could win this with best. 11 SULTRY CAT posted a sharp closing rally in the debut beating the field by nearly 5L and must be considered a top contender right back. Race 6 CHURCHILL DISTAFF MILE GII 9-1-2-8 9 CENTRE COURT was bumped and just missed in the G1 Jenny Wiley last start and s a top contender right back with a 11 for 15 ITM record that includes 7 grass wins, also has the best turf speed among this group. 1 TAPICAT is rested after a 49 day layoff and has been ITM on turf 7 of 10 times with 4 wins, Bill Mott trains this daughter of Tapit and is 19% off the layoff. 2 COFFEE CLIQUE is a G3 winner making the 2nd off a layoff and has the speed to take a slice of this. 8 EFFIE TRINKET finished 1 ½ L behind my top pick last start against G2 foes and figures to make presence felt again today if ready off the layoff. Race 7 HUMANA DISTAFF GI 8-6-3-5 8 MIDNIGHT LUCKY beat similar G1s in the Acorn last May by more than 6L and has been posting decent works including a CD Bullet on 4/26 preparing for her return, Rosie is in the saddle again and I will stick with her today. 6 IOTAPA ran 2nd vs similar G1 foes last start and is back rested after a 49 day layoff, 1 for 2 at the distance and could be a major player if ready today. Pressing style but won’t be far off the pace. 3 JUDY THE BEAUTY enters this off back to back graded stakes wins including a G1 win at today’s distance last time out, on a roll! 5 SCHERZINGER beat G2s last start at today’s distance and returns off a 3 month layoff, 1 for 1 at 7 panels and figures in the mix with best. Race 8 AMERICAN TURF STAKES GII 7-10-5- 8 7 BIG BAZINGA cuts back to a distance he has been competitive at after facing tougher G1 foes in the Blue Grass S. where he finished a distance 4th, better spotted here at a price. 10 PICOZZA is an early runner who finished a close up 3rd last start vs cheaper G3s but gets a tough draw today. 5 GLOBAL VIEW comes out of the same race as the 10, apparently didn’t like the move from turf to main track in that start and figures to improve with return to the sod. 3 for 3 ITM on grass including 2 wins. 8 STORMING INTL has high early speed and ran a close up 4th in last against cheaper, same race that 10 and 5 exit and is another that figures to improve with move back to sod. Race 9 CD STAKES GII 2-10-4-11 2 CLEARLY NOW faced tougher G1s in last 2 and didn’t run too badly against them, finishing 3rd in the Carter last start and has never been out of the money in 5 starts at the distance. 10 DELAUNEY is a total front runner and could gate to wire these in a race with little early speed. Has some super solid back speed. 4 SAHARA SKY is a closer who finished a close up 2nd in the G1 Carter last start and is 7 for 7 ITM at distance including 3 wins. Another with very decent back speed. 11 SHAKIN IT UP ran a close up 5th vs similar company last time out and posted sharp bullets in last 2 works, one over the CD main. Race 10 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC GI 1-4-7-5 1 WISE DAN short price but well deserved, the 7YO enters off a G1 win at KEE and returns to a distance where he is 1 for 1. 12 wins for 13 turf starts and I am sticking with him for another. 4 ADMIRAL KITTEN is a closer and past G1 winner, did not respond well at a mile and a half last start but could improve as he cuts back in distance today. 7 BOISTEROUSis a past G1 winner who beat cheaper allowance foes last start but likes the distance and is a turf specialist. 5 KAIGUN has a closing style but is never really far back, in fact did gate to wire the field 2 back so is versatile as well. Ran a close 2nd behind Wise Dan last start and could be there again today. Race 11 KY Derby GI 18-CANDY BOY-LONGSHOT PLAY Stevens in the saddle, trained by John Sadler, is another in here with the Raise A Native factor on sire’s side; G2 winner ran 3rd in the SA Derby, distance may be a question though, but stranger things have happened and that is why this is a LS play. Picks: 19-12-16-20-8-14 California Chrome has a good shot, and an impressive resume, but I don’t like the California horses that don’t come out to play with the rest of us, can he win outside of Cali??? I will include in exotics but can’t use him for the win at the price he will likely be at post time, which I am thinking might be around 8/5. 19 RIDE ON CURLIN-Calvin Borel in the saddle, always a major plus; stalking style that fits. Enters off a decent 2nd in the Arkansas Derby after getting bumped at the start, has 9 career starts so has the experience which will help today; ITM in 2 of 3 over the oval. Also for those of you who ascribe to obscure stats, sire side has the Raise a Native factor. 12 DANCE WITH FATE-distance should be no problem and enters off that G1 win in the Blue Grass, being overlooked because that race was on a synthetic surface, but the trainer usually picks his spots well and you get veteran Corey Nakatani in the irons—should get a nice price. Remember this is only horse in field that beat CC! Definite win bet on this one! 16 INTENSE HOLIDAY-Pletcher and Velazquez combo should always be considered and this one looked sharp all week! This is the race they were pointing towards and will be closing fast. Good 2nd in the LA Derby after a nice move, also make a good move in the Risen Star. 20 WICKED STRONG-“old school” connections with James Jerkens, I like that! Distance not a problem, winner of the G1 Wood Memorial with Maragh in the saddle and remember he finished 3rd in the 2011 Derby with Mucho Macho Man. 8 GENERAL A ROD-another that can improve off his close up 3rd place effort in the FL Derby, and has a 2nd place finish over this oval. Pricey addition to gimmicks or LS Play. 14 MEDAL COUNT-good tactical speed and is on the tough side, nice 2nd in the Blue Grass and distance should be no problem, longshot for win but good for gimmicks. Notes: 6 SAMRAAT-rated in the Wood and finished a close up 2nd, but seems to now be off everyone’s radar, but can improve today and has the right running style for the race. Distance may be a question. 4 DANZA-has only 4 career starts which always makes me decline to use as a win bet, but admittedly his win in the G1 Arkansas Derby was impressive and I would love to see my friend Joe Bravo win this!! Just might have to use him based on how good he looked this past week! Race 12 4-3-7-9
Posted on: Fri, 02 May 2014 23:51:14 +0000
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