NAIROBI, KENYA: Every president, every government, gets its major crisis. And the way the crisis is handled determines the tenor of the presidency. History generally applauds governments that used a firm hand against opponents, internal or external, who threatened the achievement of the government’s goals. The reason is this: if democracy gets out of hand, it degenerates into anarchy and causes great damage to the common good. Whatever the nature of the domestic crisis, whether triggered by industry or unions, whether by public bodies or private sector, an effective president must weigh the crisis from two perspectives. First, the democratic aspect, namely the need to listen to, understand and resolve the problems of domestic actors. Second, the common good aspect, namely the need to ensure domestic actors do not harm the common good, which requires a fair distribution of opportunities and resources while respecting legal obligations. And so we come to the growing crisis of the teachers’ unions, and their demand for an extra Sh47 billion budgetary allocation, based on allowances promised in 1997. This strike, more than any other crisis of Kenyatta’s young presidency, has the potential of defining the success or failure of his government. There is no larger constituency of public sector workers than government teachers. There is no stronger union in Kenya today than the teachers’ unions. There is no government department whose wage bill is as high as that of the education sector. The Government is faced with a critical decision. The increase of allowances demanded by teachers would cause a substantial hole in the budget and trigger similar demands by other public sector workers. Several pledges of the Jubilee government are at risk. These include vanity pledges like the free laptop project and necessary projects like the flagship Vision 2030 Lapsset project. Also at risk is infrastructure development and socio economic commitments like increased health sector spending, growing jobs and youth fund allocation. The Government must also confront the inflationary impact on the economy from increased recurrent expenditure in place of capital expenditure. If public education becomes more costly, without increased efficiency, it will damage the entire economic profile of the country. And yet, can the Jubilee government afford to alienate such an important constituency as the entire education public sector and expect to attain its key promises elsewhere? Won’t even the free laptop project collapse under the weight of teacher hostility? What is amazing is that a crisis of this nature should unravel without the direct participation of the key elected principals of the Jubilee government. Will the Jubilee leaders allow both their political and economic capital to be spent without rolling their sleeves and intervening directly in the standoff between government and teachers on allowances? Kenyans still remember the stinging indictment by Uhuru Kenyatta, then Official Leader of the Opposition, at former President Kibaki’s aloof style of leadership: “hands off, eyes off, feet off, everything off.” Will Kenyatta fall into the same hole? Ultimately, Kenyatta has three options in respect to the teachers strike. The first option is surrender: to cave in and yield on the Sh47 billion allowances. It will be a short-term fix that will portray him as a weak president and cause more harm than good. The second option is union busting, famously implemented by British Premier Margaret Thatcher and US President Ronald Reagan in the early 1980’s. This may give him short-term success but would also have substantial repercussions on the Jubilee agenda. The third option is goodwill negotiation, which can only succeed in preserving the government’s leadership over financial matters if both Government and unions are ready to cross over their red lines. Methinks Government may have to readjust its free laptop budget downwards, but must also ensure any return to work formula does not reward teachers with pay for the days they have absconded duty. Such lose-lose approach will engender the necessary win-win solution.
Posted on: Sun, 30 Jun 2013 05:49:37 +0000