NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE...A WELL-DEVELOPED 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF AR INTO SERN MO THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN AR THIS MORNING. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WILL EXIST THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN AR...NW MS AND FAR WRN TN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL JETS BECOME COUPLED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS DRIVEN BY WIND...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. .LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MO AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND EAST TX. A SQUALL-LINE WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SW MO SWD ACROSS WRN AR AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE TX. THIS SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 11:25:23 +0000
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