NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT SAT JUL 06 2013 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN TIER STATES. PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BELT OF FASTER WLYS WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO ERN MT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING WWD THROUGH NEB INTO NERN WY. COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MT. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AREA... DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S F AND ELY WINDS WILL CHARACTERIZE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF STALLED FRONT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN SD...NRN WY INTO SRN AND WRN MT AND SUBSEQUENTLY EXPAND EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE BELT OF MODERATE WLY WINDS ALOFT WITH 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. STORM COVERAGE MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT GREATER OVER PORTIONS OF MT WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER DEEP FORCING AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS MIGHT EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN MT INTO ND. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT STILL APPEARS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. WHERE DIABATIC WARMING DOES OCCUR...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ..DIAL.. 07/06/2013
Posted on: Sat, 06 Jul 2013 11:59:04 +0000
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