NYANDARUA 2017: THE POSSIBILITIES AND PROBABILITIES. It is now 30 months to the expiry of the tenure of the current political office holders and 33 months to the next general elections. Barring a referendum poll date change we are voting on 8.8.2017 It is therefore not early to start scanning the political horizon. Up to very recent past Governor Daniel Waithaka Mwangi appeared politically battered and beyond a comeback. I am studying the re-organization of his office before making a substantive observation on chances of his re-election. I have interacted with Governor Waithaka a number of times and with the fact that he was labelled an underdog in 2013 and yet beat all other candidates I need more time to see what he got up his sleeves. Honourable Peter Gathimba is the man of the moment. He lost TNA nominations in 2013 by a whisker and most of his supporters believe that his victory was stolen not by the Governor but by Waithaka Mwangi Kirika and the Nyandarua Leaders Forum. To the Nyandarua Leaders Forum Gathimbas victory would have consigned Deputy Governor Waithaka Mwangi to a political grave. Gathimbas victory had to be stolen for Waithaka Mwangi Kirika to survive. Governor Waithaka Mwangi enjoyed massive support in Ndaragwa and Oljororok and parts of Olkalou whereas Gathimba commanded fanatical base in Kinangop South, Kipipiri, Mirangine District and was able to beat all other gubernatorial candidates in Leshau Ward in Ndaragwa subcounty. Olkalou was lucky to produce both the Governor, the Senator, the Speaker and still remain the seat of the County government. Olkalou may have to cede either the gubernatorial seat or the Senate seat. Kipipiri was able to produce the County Women MP. I am seeing a situation where in the build up to the nominations the following scenarios may emerge. Governor Waithaka may seek re-election but pick another deputy from Kipipiri or from Kinangop. Deputy Governor may drop his gubernatorial ambitions and run for senate seat. Gathimba may run for governorship and pick a deputy from Olkalou, have his preferred senator from Ndaragwa, Kipipiri or Oljororok take the Women MP and County Secretary and have the Speaker come from the area that will appear marginalized. Governor Waithaka may pick Wangungu the former Nyandarua County Council Chairman and the current Governors political adviser as his running mate in 2017. This ticket would not have preferred Senator, Woman MP and all that. Honourable Peter Gathimba may pick someone from Olkalou proper or from Mirangine and support Hon Jeremiah Kioni for the Senate. Holding all other factors constant this would be a potent combination. If Deputy Governor runs for governorship against this ticket he loses. If he runs for the senate again he loses. The other scenario would be where DG Waithaka Mwangi runs for governorship with a running mate from Ndaragwa and loses big time if the other tickets are as hypothesized above. The last scenario is where a Makmende emerges from nowhere in the last minute believing that we are a land of sour milk and mashed potatoes and runs for governorship. What we have between our ears would determine the outcome of Makmendes adventure. But all these scenarios would depend on who has the control of TNA in Nyandarua! CT
Posted on: Sat, 25 Oct 2014 08:49:33 +0000
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