Not since early 2012 has Nusra faced such challenging circumstances and it seems likely now that we are witnessing the transformation of Nusra itself and what it publicly stands for. If this proves to be accurate, then the fundamental dynamics of the Syrian conflict are set for yet another significant change. The groups focus on securing dominance over key municipalities in Idlib along the Turkish border points to an attempt to isolate rebels from the MOC supply line through the Bab al-Hawa crossing and potentially also to take advantage of this period of disunity within the Islamic Front. Should that happen, it would be extraordinarily surprising if yet another new front failed to open in the Syrian conflict -- that of rebels versus Jabhat al-Nusra. If things werent complicated enough today, with at least eight distinct conflict fronts active across the country -- (1) opposition vs. regime, (2) opposition vs. Islamic State, (3) opposition vs. Hezbollah, (4) Islamic State vs. regime, (5) Islamic State vs. Kurds, (6) Nusra vs. Islamic State, (7) Nusra vs. regime, (8) eastern tribes vs. Islamic State -- the addition of a ninth in the shape of Nusra vs. the opposition would make finding a solution to the conflict an almost insurmountable challenge. Unfortunately however, if it hasnt already begun, this looks almost inevitable (Charles Lister is a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar)
Posted on: Mon, 11 Aug 2014 09:02:58 +0000
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