OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE MARCH 6 2014 Tonights video is long and I make no apologies for that - it is a very complex situation. TIMELINE - 0:00 - 8:00 - WATCH THIS FOR THE OVERVIEW AND THE EXPECTED BEST GUESS TRACKS AS OF TODAYS GUIDANCE. 8:00 - 17:30 - The LOW right now and the positive and negative factors for its development. We also look at steering influences and why its moving the way its moving. 17:30 - 32:30 - Model track forecasts model by model IN A NUTSHELL - THE QUEENSLAND CORAL SEA SYSTEM **use with EXTREME CAUTION due to high model variability** TC PROBS About an 80+% chance of becoming a cyclone in the next week LANDFALL PROBS About a 30% chance of making landfall on the Queensland coast About a 75% chance that it will get to within 200kms of the Queensland coast. MOST LIKELY LANDFALL AREA While landfall remains unlikely there is a chance it could happen and todays guidance has actually increased the likely landfall region to between Cairns and Mackay with Ingham to Mackay still the favoured part of that region. MOST LIKELY LANDFALL TIME Sunday or Monday although remember landfall is still an unlikely but possible option. INTENSITY While model guidance favours a weak tropical Cyclone of Category One/weak two intensity, atmospheric conditions along its expected track become almost ideal over the next 2-3 days and therefore rapid intensification (above what is shown on current guidance)may occur if the system can tighten itself up in the next 24 hours. IMPACTS WIND Gales are likely to be experienced up to 300kms south of the expected track of the centre with a much smaller gale radius to the west/north/east. Damaging winds are likely if the system makes landfall destructive winds are possible if the system intensifies more than expected and makes landfall or gets within 50kms of the coastline. IMPACTS RAIN Heavily dependant on coastal proximity but at this stage guidance favours falls of 100-200mm on the coast south of the system. Should the system adopt a coastal hugging track falls of 200 - 400mm/24hrs are possible south of the centre. Should the system lie east of 150E Longitude, falls diminish significantly to 20-100mm from the entire event. Rain should begin sometime Saturday/Saturday night, but wont get intense until Sunday over the favoured parts. So pack a poncho if youre watching the Cowboys play at 1300SMILES Falls north of the track will be light, there is varied guidance on places west of the track but overall falls should be light there too. NEXT VIDEO MARCH 7TH ABOUT 9:00PM QLD TIME Thanks for watching and if youd like to support what we do, please click on an in-video or website ad that you like or purchase our app from the Android and iTunes app stores, or simply tell your friends about us and what we do
Posted on: Thu, 06 Mar 2014 11:02:01 +0000
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