Ok, heres my first call snowfall estimate. Cold air is definitely the question here, as most models are pretty close on track and intensity. The biggest problem here, is were not getting rain, or ice, or snow. Were getting everything, likely all at the same time, in different ratios throughout the day. As per the latest upper air soundings, snow will move in during the wee hours Saturday morning, bringing mostly snow (though not likely a clean snow as there could be rain and freezing rain mixed in at times). This could add up to around an inch depending on your exact location in relation to the rain/snow line, before mixing with and changing to mostly freezing rain, then rain. This changeover will occur during the mid to late morning, and the worst of the icy travel will occur from late morning into early Saturday afternoon. While there are still model discrepancies as to if and when a changeover back to snow will occur, the most likely scenario is a change back to mostly snow (because, again, we could see ice pellets and freezing rain mixed in with the snow), bringing us several inches on the backside of the system. Be smart, put ice melter down before you go to sleep Friday night or as soon as you wake up Saturday morning to give yourself a head start and keep walkways safe for pedestrians. This will not be an easy on the lower back shoveling as there will be very high moisture content to whatever slushy, icy muck we receive. So, while Im providing you with the most likely scenario, there are decent probabilities that we could see a little more or a little less snow depending on how much cold air gets pulled into the system. Were gonna be riding that magical line that Long Island always does in these situations. Im sure there will still be tweaking to this forecast. Ill have another update late this evening. Post any questions, comments, and/or concerns in the comments and have a wonderful afternoon.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 20:59:06 +0000
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