Online-Trading SNAP 30.06.2014: Better prospects Recently, Polish government press is not so good as it used to be. The tape scandal dominated the discourse, also in the economic media. The stock market is weak partly because only handful of future retirees will remain in OFE (open pension funds). Nevertheless, cool assessment of the state of affairs shows that we are in pretty attractive phase of the business cycle. Another revision of our GDP forecasts show that a growth in next year may amount to 4% (previously: 3.8%), accelerating from 3.5% this year (while at the beginning of the year, GPD was expected to increase around 3% this year and a little more next year). What are reasons of the improvement? The crisis in the Europe is ending and Polish companies use this situation very well, as seen in the excellent data on export. At the same time domestic demand revives. Surprisingly low inflation means that even at a moderate growth rate in employment and wages, real incomes are growing at a decent level. Add to that, low interest rates and a better mood in Polish media and prospects for the further growth in consumption draw very well. A large number of investments in the first quarter could be a phenomenon, but in the face of low interest rates, investment demand will be rebuilt. Especially, that the results of polish companies are generally getting better. Finally, a year before the election, the government administration is not expected to scrimp. All of this cause that the growth will accelerate in the second half of 2015 years and will exceed 4% (apart from a technical volatility). What does this mean for the markets? Such periods are generally good to buy shares. Polish shares are not cheap, but can be attractive. It seems that at the time, when the number of people who will remain in the open pension funds, will be known, uncertainty won’t be a problem for the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It is possible that at this time we will see some correction on the Wall Street and polish shares will become good opportunity to invest. Polish zloty depends more on a global factors than local, but better prospects of growth should not bring lower interest rates which could cause decline of polish currency. We expect stable EURPLN and a slight increase on USDPLN with the global appreciation of the dollar. Weitere Themen im Online-Trading SNAP: * Currency market: attractive currencies * EURUSD, D1 - AUSUSD, D1 - USDCAD, D1 * Commodities: Mysterious copper inventories * US.500, D1 - GOLD, D1 - OIL, D1 Den XTB Online-Trading SNAP können Sie hier runterladen: Online-Trading SNAP Veröffentlichungen von X-Trade Brokers, die bestimmte Situationen in den Finanzmärkten kommentieren sowie allgemeine mündliche Aussagen von Mitarbeitern von X-Trade Brokers hinsichtlich der Finanzmärkte stellen keine Beratung des Kunden durch X-Trade Brokers dar und können auch nicht als solche ausgelegt werden. Risikowarnung dlvr.it/69Vr5K
Posted on: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 15:53:09 +0000
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