Osun Governorship Election: Gallup Poll Puts Aregbesola Ahead of Omisore A gallup poll released on Thursday by the firm of TNS-RMS, a member of Gallup International, ahead of the Osun State governorship election, has shown the incumbent Governor of the State, Rauf Aregbesola, in clear lead with 73 percent ahead of the Peoples Democratic Partys Iyiola Omisore who scored a distant 16 percent. This means that, all other things equal during the exercise, according to the poll which reached Huhuonline late Thursday, Aregbesola would retain a comfortable win. The APC continues to dominate the political landscape in Osun State judging by its performance on all key indicators evaluated: it scored highest and also increased in rating on first mention, sympathy, and voting intention, the research firm said in its final report which had Mr. Razaq Animasaun as its research contact person. According to the study, the incumbent governor, Rauf Aregbesola, is the candidate of choice by Osun voters with a 73 percent lead over other candidates. This is a clear indication that the choice of Osun voters in the next governorship race is Governor Rauf Aregebsola. Meanwhile, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the PDP comes a far distant second, polling 19 percent representing a 2 percent decline from the earlier survey. The incumbent (Governor Rauf Aregbesola) remains (the) main voting choice. Voting choice for Senator Omisore declined by 2 percent and seem not to pose a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race, TSN-RMS said in the report. The two phased survey with a margin error of plus or minus five, was conducted over a period that stretched from June 2014 into the third week of July 2014. Not only is APC currently the most preferred party in Osun State, it has largely retained this goodwill from way back in the past. It was the party that most people claimed to have voted for in the last election and it is still the party with the highest chances of winning the election again. More importantly, the gap by which it out performs opposition continues to widen and more convincing in the current survey, the report added. The APC also rated very high in the survey as its top-of-mind and awareness increased from 75 percent to 78 percent over the two polls, followed by a very far distance by the PDP with 18 percent, a drop of 3 percent from 21 percent in the first study. The Labour Party (LP) maintains third rank with a negligible one percent. Furthermore, electorate choice for APC is now 70 percent-boosted by one percent increment. The survey stated that 19 percent of the respondents say they would vote for the PDP, another three percent drop. Electorate choice for Labour Party remains one percent. The report goes further to say: while Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is more known than his party, Senator Iyiola Omisore (PDP’s candidate) is less known than his party. Top-of-mind awareness of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola increased to 85 percent (from 79 percent), affinity increased from 72 percent to 74 percent and chances of being re-elected increased from 71 percent to 73 percent. Conversely, the report sees a tale of decline for the man in second place, Senator Omisore. For top-of-mind awareness, the PDP candidate toppled to 13 percent (from 19 percent), affinity fell to 19 percent (from 21 percent) and chances of being elected declined to 19 percent (from 21 percent). While the affinity of Osun electorate towards the APC increased by 4 percent, PDP failed to maintain its connection to the people. The favourable perception of Osun voters towards the All Progressive’s Congress, APC stood at 83 percent while 17 percent viewed APC as unfavourable. According to the polls, 98 percent of the electorates in Osun State have said they would participate in the August 9th gubernatorial election. This indicates that the people are prepared for all eventualities in election, the report emphasised. The survey also revealed the strength of the candidates and their parties in the local government areas across the state stressing a repeat of APC high chance to win in all the LGAs seem to play out again in the next election, APC is poised to repeat this feat except in Ife Central and Ife East; the PDP seemed well positioned to win these two LGAs. The Labour Party’s weakness is imminent across all the LGAs. The incumbents chances of being reelected remain same across the LGAs except in Ife Central and Ife East. The incumbent’s chances of re-election remain high and leads his closest rival by a good margin of 54 percent - an increment of four percent over last survey. The voters’ confidence in Attahiru Jega-led Independent National Election Commission (INEC) took a 10 percent dive, dropping to 57 percent from 67 percent. 11 Points Of Note Concerning The Research/Survey 1. APC continues to lead top of mind awareness, increased to 78 percent. Spontaneous aware of PDP dipped by 3 percent. The third contender remains almost unknown at one percent. 2. Although the gap closed up significantly, APC still maintains a healthy lead over the PDP and other opposition power on overall awareness. 3.Voter sympathy is expressed more firmly in favor of the APC, more than 2/3 voters express sympathy to APC compare to 1/5 voters who show sympathy to PDP 4.Overall, All Progressive Congress (APC) enjoys and maintains a comfortable assessment over other parties 5. Overall, the electorate speaks favorably about APC and have a positive perception towards the party. Adduced to be a grass root party, a party that has proven record of performance and party for the masses. 6.Spontaneous awareness of Ogbeni Aregbesola seem to increase as party awareness increases, PDP top-of-mind awareness declined and still trail far behind APC 7. Awareness of the incumbent-Ogbeni Aregbesola increases marginally to 98 percent. His incumbency, among other factors is a key source of awareness. Senator Iyiola Omisore has gained some awareness through ‘Word of Mouth’. 8. The incumbent governor is highly rated and he continues to lead other candidates in all the stated attributes. Senator Omisore seem to drop marginally in all the stated attributes 9. The incumbent remains main voting choice for the voters. Voting chance for Senator Omisore declined by two percent and seems not to pose a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race. 10. Influence of candidate’s personality has increased to be main driver of voting choice. This is followed by the appeal of individual candidate’s track record. Influence of party platform continues to diminish. 11.Confidence level in INEC’s ability to deliver, both as an umpire generally and in the Osun State elections have drastically reduced, and now tend towards average.
Posted on: Fri, 01 Aug 2014 10:09:17 +0000