PDP Battles APC In Osun: Who Wins? ...Determinant Factors of a probable winner The political game of survival of the fittest in Osun has undoubtedly reached a crescendo. It is just 24 hours to commence the civil, legal, moral, ideological and electoral process of separating the political wheat from the political chaff. The fear of the surprising outcome of the just concluded Ekiti governorship election has become the beginning of wisdom for the incumbent Governor in the State of Osun. The fear of incumbency power and influence has also become the beginning of wisdom for the opponent(s) contesting for the number one sit in the State of Osun. Frankly, it is a known fact that the contest is largely between Aregbesola (APC) and Omisore (PDP). Consequently, ESFAN brings into focus some of the factors that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election on Saturday, August 9, 2014. Nevertheless, the political analysis here is subject to arguments and different opinions. Personality: No doubt, both personalities are well known in their State either for good or for bad. There have been questions and arguments as regards the integrity, image and morality of Omisore unlike Aregbesola. He has been accused of one crime or the other, including the allegation of murder of an Ijesha son. In terms of personality, Aregbesola may gain the support of the voters in Osun State more than Omisore. Ethnicity/Ethnic Affiliation: Aregbesola is from Ilesha (Ijesha environ) and a dominant political force to reckon with. The same thing is applicable to Omisore who is from Ife. An indigene of Ilesha may enjoy more support from fellow Ijesha tribes much more than an individual from Ife. In this case, Aregbesola may have an upper hand more than Omisore. Religion: Omisore is a Christian while Aregbesola is a Muslim. The State of Osun has a large number of Muslims who are ready to vote for their ‘own’. Aregbesola has been enjoying a reasonable support from his faithful Muslims. He has also gained the support of the majority of Christians based on his religious egalitarianistic posture. For instance, the ongoing construction of a Mega Church for all Christian denominations and the befitting burial for Obadare attest to his gesture towards the Christendom. Religion factor may favour Aregbesola much more than Omisore. Massive Support in Massive Voting Areas: There are some areas in Osun that boast of massive voters, some of which are Ede, Osogbo, and Ilesha. Aregbesola has gained more support in these areas more than Omisore. The number of votes in these areas may determine the final result of the election, especially if it favours Aregbesola based on the support given to him so far. Landmark Achievements: There are visible achievements in most parts of the State successfully carried out by the administration of Aregbesola during his first tenure in office. Omisore has been questioned to name what he did for the state as a senator, whether the one(s) he influenced the Federal Government to do for the state of Osun or the one personally carried out in his official capacity. Based on this, Aregbesola may enjoy the support of the voters more than Omisore. Connection with Political Who is Who in the State: All former civilian governors and notable politicians from the State of Osun are behind Aregbesola unlike Omisore, namely Akande, Oyinlola, Isiaka Adeleke among others and a reasonable number of traditional rulers and majority of youths in the State. Omisore on the other hand, as argued, depends largely on thugs and factions of tertiary intitutions’ students in the state as well as few traditional rulers. This factor may give more votes to Aregbesola more than Omisore. Federal Might: This is believed to be the highest and most sensitive factor of all the factors briefly analysed above. Federal might is encompassing as it involves provision of security (military and para-military) and control of electoral body (INEC). No doubt, Omisore will enjoy massive support under this factor unlike Aregbesola who has little or nothing at stake here other than to be personally or collectively extra-vigilant. The fact here is that this factor alone may supersede and override all the aforementioned factors and may determine the overall outcome of the election on Saturday. This factor alone may give more votes to Omisore more than Aregbesola. For instance, Fayose won ‘convincingly’ in Ekiti because of his Personality and Federal Might factors irrespective of other factors. I have learned from the prints recently that over four hundred thousand (400, 000+) have been disenfranchised in the State of Osun due to non-provision of permanent voters cards for them. I also learnt those technically disenfranchised were the notable names that voted for ACN (now APC) in the past and especially that voted against Goodluck Jonathan in the last general elections. If this is true, I hope APC members are aware that what they have calculated as their favourable votes may be nowhere to be found on Saturday! The fear of this factor therefore should be the beginning of timidity and sagacity for Ogbeni Aregbesola. GOOD LUCK OMISORE! GOOD LUCK AREGBESOLA! GOOD LUCK OTHERS! … Olamide Adelana.
Posted on: Fri, 08 Aug 2014 05:22:27 +0000
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