PDS friends and fans... I have looked at 2 different models at the same time-frame on the same day. The picture snap shots are below. On the left we have the GFS (Global Forecast System) and on the right we have the NAM (North American Mesoscale) Notice the difference between the two? These snapshots are for 6 pm on Saturday. The models are run 4 times a day (every 6 hours) Of course everything is in Zulu Time (00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z) We have found that the 12z and 00z runs tend to be more accurate than the other 2. So with that being said, it appears to me that the NAM is not on board with the snow event at this time and the GFS is more aggressive with bringing the snow in. The NWS in Kansas City posted their thoughts on the snow totals for that part of the state, but the folks at St. Louis have not bought into it as of yet and neither am I at this point. Tomorrow we will see if the NAM comes on board with the GFS or not. Please understand that the GFS is a longer range model and the NAM is a short range one. The GFS is sometimes on its game when we see days of consecutive runs showing the same thing. The GFS is showing this and has since the 7th. However, I am inept to biting the proverbial snow hook just yet because I want to see what the NAM brings to the table. Of course if you have questions, just ask. I will update further as more information becomes available. - Gene
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 01:27:39 +0000
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