Philippine development in a state of perpetual war By EFREN N. PADILLA March 2, 2014 4:53pm We are now in a state of perpetual war with China. Whether we like it or not, this is our reality. What is a state of perpetual war? There are many renditions to its meaning but I like what Emmanuel Goldstein, a character in George Orwells classic dystopian novel 1984 has to say: It does not matter whether the war is actually happening, and, since no decisive victory is possible, it does not matter whether the war is going badly. All that is needed is that a state of war should exist. In our case, China had already pushed us into that psychological corner and sealed in our minds the sense of inevitable conflict that could likely flare up anytime in the region. With a dreaded sense of anticipation, I have been asking myself how can a country committed to a policy of “peaceful rise” undertake unilateral aggression against us? How can a country that seeks to be a vanguard of a peaceful international environment threaten us with force? And how can a country that projects itself as a responsible world leader inflict us with unnecessary confrontations? These are unsettling questions to deal with when China’s ideal constructs do not fit with their realities. And yet, we have to make sense of the dissonance between its broadcasted pronouncements and corresponding actions for the sake of our own safety and preparedness. I must say that China’s disdain for the rule of law and reliance on the efficacy of coercion and conflict in West Philippine Sea unmask its true character as a troublemaker and belligerent country in the region bent on pursuing its imperial dream by any means necessary. That is, the renewal and long-term goal of maritime supremacy and dominance in Asia, a resurgent Pax Sinica, so to speak. According to U.S. intelligence, by 2020, China intends to secure its dream of maritime supremacy in South China Sea via a planned step-by-step occupation and control of all island chains (i.e., Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, and Scarborough Shoal) within its manufactured nine-dash-line. Once it possesses the new strategic island inlets in South China Sea, it’ll have the territorial stage to control military and commercial passages between the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean and vice-versa. By 2040, China aspires to contain and replace the U.S. Armed Forces supremacy and dominance in Pacific Ocean Rim as well as Indian Ocean Rim (WEST 2014, U.S. Naval Institute Conference). Now that China has laid down its long-term strategy towards the fulfillment of its resurgent age-old hegemonic ambition of a pan-Asian order of “China is for Asia,” the battleground theater has been set for the competition among great powers over long-term maritime presence and freedom of navigation in South China Sea as well as East China Sea that could lead to a new global conflict. What about us? How do we figure out our role in this impending global conflict? What is our strategy? As a petty state, our options are few and far between. For now, we have three tracks available to us: the ASEAN track, the mutual defense treaty track, and the rule of law track (that China eschews). To date, the ASEAN track is still a work-in-progress when it comes to making a united stand against China while the military track is not an option for us right now. As things stand, our main option for now is to rely on the rule of law to resolve out conflict with China. Hopefully, we will hear sometime next year about the decision of our case against China that we filed for international arbitration. Militarily, we must hedge against war. It is true we have friends and allies whom we have mutual defense arrangements but they can only assist us militarily. Besides, we cannot simply rely on others to defend our country. In the end, they cannot fight our war for us. We have to fight our own fight. Is there something we can do long-term wise? I think so. As a sovereign nation on the cusp of a changing geopolitical landscape in Asia, we must strategically reposition ourselves militarily and economically as a maritime country in the region. Planning-wise, we have to do it now because we are running out of time to prepare. And the status quo is not an option for us anymore. Just consider the dismal assessment of the writer Victor Robert Lee on the implication of Typhoon Yolanda regarding the self-defense capabilities of our country. What does this strategic repositioning entail? The answer is very easy, and yet, very difficult. It is very easy because we already have an existing and successful model to follow, that is, the Subic Model. At the same time, it is very difficult because we still have to have a leader who is not only corrupt, but also, a visionary and a strategic planner committed let’s say, to implement within five years the selected growth points in Mindanao. The idea of strategic repositioning is to immediately start developing the Island of Mindanao into a maritime hub of city-states where in the future we can land, anchor, and service our own and our friends and allies military and commercial fleets. At the same time, advance the entire island into an integrated and interconnected agricultural and commercial development zone. As a starter, we can plan and design a functionally-integrated tri-city-states located along the gulfs of Davao, Butuan, and Zamboanga with Subic-like facilities, military airbases, and connected to their hinterlands by a wheel-like toll road of circumferential four-lane freeway and/or rapid rail system hugging the coastline of the entire Island and spooks of inland-four-lane freeway and/or rapid rail system connectors emanating from the boundary of Lanao del Sur and Bukidnon. The same pattern of sea, air, and land-based transportation network system can be implemented in selected city-states and their hinterlands in Visayas Island as well as Luzon Island. I am sure there are more similar ideas regarding the strategic repositioning of our country aimed at dealing with our state of perpetual war with China. And since we know what China wants and what it is doing now and what it will do in the future, it behooves us to urgently plan and build our military defenses as well as our agricultural and commercial viability for today and tomorrow.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 05:24:00 +0000
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