Pirates Reunite With AJ Burnett Over the last few years, the Pirates have developed a bit of a reputation for being exceptional at extracting value from discarded pitchers: Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, and Mark Melancon are three of the more recent examples, for instance. However, before any of those three got to Pittsburgh, the Pirates worked their voodoo on A.J. Burnett, taking him off the Yankees hands in the winter of 2011 and extracting two excellent years from him after New York decided to pay him to play for anyone else but them. 這幾年海盜隊在挖掘一些被漸漸放棄的球員的價值上享有盛名, 像是Francisco Liriano, Edison Volquez 以及 Mark Melancon, 以上三人是最近的例子。然而在這三人來到Pittsburgh之前，2011海盜隊從洋基的手中接下ＡＪBurnett接下來精采的兩年，一份洋基認賠的合約，而他的表現在來到海盜隊之後就像是被施了法術一般神奇 Over the 2012-2013 seasons, Burnett threw 393 innings with a 92 ERA-/85 FIP-/82 xFIP-, providing well above average performance and durability, and because the Yankees were financing his costs, the Pirates paid just $13 million for those two seasons. However, the cost-conscious organization declined to make him a qualifying offer last offseason, and despite some mutual desire for another contract between both sides, Burnett ended up taking a two year contract to go pitch for the Phillies. 在2012和2013的球季中，Burnett投了393局並附帶92ERA-/85 FIP-/82xFIP-的成績單,提供平均水準之上的表現和續航力，這兩年中海盜隊只需要付1300萬元因為洋基吸收了剩下的薪資。然而球團意識到預算的問題，所以前年球季結束後並沒有對他提出合格報價，並且雙方都有相當中意的合約，A.J. Burnett費城人兩年的合約去到費城 It didn’t go well for either side. Burnett was bad, his teammates were worse, and so both sides decided to opt-out of the second year of the contract, allowing Burnett to become a free agent again. And now, with the choice of where to pitch once again, Burnett has decided to go back to Pittsburgh, signing on for the 2015 season for $8.5 million. By opting out of his Phillies deal and signing with the Pirates, he ended up leaving $4 million on the table, so this represents a pretty significant pay cut for Burnett, but as a 38 year old who has made over $100 million in his career, happiness clearly came ahead of maximizing dollars earned. 結果對於費城人和AJ雙方都沒有預期中的那麼好。Burnett他自己並沒有投出應有的表現，隊友的表現更差，所以今年球季結束後雙方決定不執行選擇權讓Burnett再度成為自由球員。在選擇下一季的該為哪隊效力時他選擇了老東家回到Pittsburgh。簽下了一筆2015球季 一年850萬的合約。對比於沒有執行費城人選擇權的合約和與海盜新簽的合約，這之間差了4百萬美金。這對Burnett來說可以是一個大減價，但對於這位38歲的選手並且職業生涯中賺了將近1億美金的他來說 開心投球明顯比金錢來的重要 And Burnett should be pretty happy to be back in Pittsburgh, as his success there was likely no mirage. For one, the Pirates have been employed aggressive defensive positioning to try and limit their allowed rates of hits on balls in play, and have combined that with an emphasis on catchers who specialize in expanding the strike zone. Toss in a pitcher friendly ballpark and Pittsburgh is one of the best places for any pitcher in all of baseball. Burnett has chosen a pretty good place to have an affinity towards. 而且對Burnett來說他應該感到相當開心回到Pittsburgh，他過去的成功絕對不僅是幻覺而已。其中的一個原因是海盜隊雇用了一批相當積極的守備球員並且嘗試去限制球被打進場中的機率，並將其與把好球帶放寬視為重點的捕手融合再一起。在一個適合投手投球的球場然而Pittsuburgh就是其中之一。Burnett選擇了一個相當好的地方並與他有密切的關係 Of course, pitching in Pittsburgh won’t magically turn Burnett back into the guy he was a few years ago. He’s older now, and in baseball, older usually means worse. Steamer projects him for +1.8 WAR in 2014, but Burnett is a guy who has consistently underperformed his FIP, so a runs allowed forecast would put him closer to +1.5 WAR. And sure enough, that’s what Dan Szymborski projected him for when he tweeted out an early ZIPS forecast for Burnett after the news broke. A +1.5 WAR starter is certainly useful, but would make Burnett about half as valuable as he was during his prior stint in Pittsburgh. 當然在Pittsburgh投球並不會像魔法一樣把他變回幾年前的王牌。他年紀已經越來越大了而在幫球界當中 老代表著越來越差的意思。Steamer 預測他2014的WAR為+1.8，但Burnett就如往常他的表現總是低於FIP，所以在一個允許運行的預測下他的WAR會比較接近+1.5。這個數據是可信的，因為這正是Dan Szymborski在新聞出來是為他所預測的數據。一名WAR +1.5投手其實已經是相當夠用了，但和Burnett在Pittsburgh巔峰時比較起來只有當時的一半 They’re getting the same name, but probably not the same performance, and because the Yankees aren’t footing most of the bill this time around, he’s actually going to cost them even more. But there’s nothing wrong with paying more than a hilarious bargain, as long as you’re still paying less than market value, and $8.5 million for roughly a +1.5 WAR pitcher comes out to about $5.7 million per win, a bit less than last year’s average price, and almost certainly less than what the cost will be this year. Worse pitchers are likely going to get more money and more years than Burnett just did; this is the kind of deal you can sign when a player directs his agent to only negotiate with one team. 他們的名字一樣但表現上可能有些差距而且洋基這次並沒有負擔大部分的薪資，。所以他們實質上付出的比帳面上的還多。但其實這和一筆可笑的合約比起來並沒有那麼差,而且一名850萬美金可以表現出WAR +1.5的投手,平均一場勝利只要花570萬美金和去年甚至是今年比起來已經是相當便宜。很多表現更差的投手比Burnett拿到更高的薪資和更長的年約。這種合約只有在選手指定他的經紀人只能和某支特定的球隊談才有可能發生 So this seems like a win for both sides. Burnett gets to pitch where he wants, while the Pirates get a useful back-end starter for a little less than it would have cost them to bid against other teams for something similar. Given his age and declining skills, Burnett has little upside remaining, but a reunion with the Pirates pitcher-friendly environs should allow him to throw a 180 decent innings. And thanks to his sinker/slider repertoire, even in the worst case scenario, he’d probably make a very effective right-handed bullpen piece, so there’s little downside at all to this kind of signing. 這個合約對雙方來說都是贏。Burnett可以為他想要效力的球隊比賽然而海盜隊得到一名想當實用的先發投手並且是以比別的球隊更低的價格簽到同等級的選手。不論他的年紀和漸漸退步的身手，Burnett的優勢並不多但回到海盜這個適合投手投球的環境中，他可以提供180局的投球。而且因為他的伸卡球以及滑球就算他的表現不如預期，他也會是牛棚中非常可用的右投手，所以缺點其實對於這份合約來說並沒有那麼多 The team can’t afford to see him as the guy who pitched like their ace a few years ago, but this contract doesn’t ask him to do that, and I’m sure the Pirates are wise enough to realize he’s more of a #5 starter than a #1 starter at this point. As a depth piece, Burnett can help the Pirates, and the contract makes plenty of sense for both sides. But if they don’t re-sign Francisco Liriano, Burnett’s not the guy to take his place, and this shouldn’t be the last pitching upgrade they make this winter. 球隊可能無法看到幾年前有如王牌般表現的他，但這份合約並沒有要求他要到達顛峰時的水準，而且我深信海盜隊夠聰明能夠理解現在的他最多只是個5號投手而不是1號先發。身為一塊具有實力的拼圖，Burnett一定能幫助到海盜隊，而且這份合約對雙方來說都是相當合理的。但假如他們沒有簽回Francisco Liriano，Burnett不會是那位頂下他1號先發的投手,而且這絕對不會是他們今年季後對於投手最後的補強 文章來源: fangraphs/blogs/pirates-reunite-with-a-j-burnett/#comments POST COUNT : 1 ( Jason Tang )
Posted on: Wed, 19 Nov 2014 04:00:00 +0000
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