← Polling companies have to stop treating Britain as one unit Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? Posted on 05/10/2014 by thomas [London] Westminster [London] Westminster by Fabrizio Sciami, on Flickr. It’s very clear that the best way to ensure that Westminster keeps paying attention to Scotland and to the promises they made during the referendum campaign is to elect as many Yes MPs in May 2015 as possible. I’d love to see some Scottish Green MPs elected together with a strong SNP contingent, and a Yes Alliance might be the way forward. However, given the weak Green performance in 2010, I’ll concentrate on the SNP’s chances in the following. How many seats can the SNP realistically win? To find out, I decided to look at the question from three different angles. Firstly, I implemented a uniform swing based on Scot Goes Pop!’s latest poll of polls (SNP 35.6%, Labour 31.3%, LD 5.8%, Con 17.2%). Secondly, I took the constituency votes cast at the 2011 Holyrood election and calculated the equivalent Westminster result. For instance, my calculations showed that Banff and Buchan consists of 74.8% of Aberdeenshire East plus 90.2% of Banffshire and Buchan Coast, so I simply applied these percentages to the 2011 results. Thirdly, I took the independence referendum results, assigned the results to the Westminster constituencies (in a way similar to the above, just based on the council areas instead, except for Glasgow, which published the results for the Holyrood constituencies, and Edinburgh, which used Westminster ones), and mapped the Yes vote to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. Of course the referendum was very different from an election, but it shows what a united Yes Alliance could potentially achieve. Finally, I calculated the average of the three predictions described above and the actual 2010 result, which should take the incumbency effect into account. The results are very interesting: Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 6 24 45 56 28 LAB 41 30 12 1 27 LD 11 3 1 2 3 CON 1 2 1 0 1 A map of the constituencies showing my rankings. The white ones are formidable, and the dark yellow ones are safe. A map of the constituencies showing my rankings. The white ones are ‘formidable’ and the dark yellow ones are ‘safe’. Based on this map. This means that according to uniform swing, the SNP stands to win 24 seats, but if we can convince the voters to vote like they did in 2011, the SNP will get no less than 45 seats, and if we can replicate the referendum result, a total of 56 seats is possible. However, if we look at the average of the predictions and of the 2010 result, the SNP will get 28 seats, one more than Labour. I’ve listed all the Westminster constituencies below, ranked from formidable ones (where the SNP is not in the lead according to any of these measures) to safe ones. List of formidable constituencies Dumfries and Galloway The MP elected in 2010 was Russell Brown. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 6419 14610 14401 24503 14983 LAB 23950 18367 14273 24914 20376 LD 4608 0 1473 4793 2719 CON 16501 16762 15805 17165 16558 Orkney and Shetland The MP elected in 2010 was Alistair Carmichael. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 2042 5079 3178 10552 5213 LAB 2061 0 1078 2557 1424 LD 11989 9455 7374 14876 10924 CON 2032 2129 1016 2521 1925 List of challenging constituencies Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Moore. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 4497 12192 15017 23593 13825 LAB 5003 0 5830 5366 4050 LD 22230 15809 9772 23844 17914 CON 16555 16800 14937 17757 16512 Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill The MP elected in 2010 was Tom Clarke. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 7014 13551 19277 32998 18210 LAB 27728 23273 21580 25319 24475 LD 3519 0 789 3213 1880 CON 3374 3582 2870 3081 3227 West Dunbartonshire The MP elected in 2010 was Gemma Doyle. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8497 15133 12197 33720 17387 LAB 25905 21383 12618 22880 20697 LD 3434 0 1402 3033 1967 CON 3242 3453 3208 2863 3192 Dunfermline and West Fife The MP elected in 2010 was Thomas Docherty. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5201 12886 19510 29281 16720 LAB 22639 17402 19912 18830 19696 LD 17169 10757 6570 14280 12194 CON 3305 3550 3519 2749 3281 Glasgow East The MP elected in 2010 was Margaret Curran. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 7957 13007 20441 54143 23887 LAB 19797 16355 22619 40260 24758 LD 1617 0 879 3288 1446 CON 1453 1614 2269 2955 2073 Glasgow North East The MP elected in 2010 was Willie Bain. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 4158 8775 26476 66750 26540 LAB 20100 16953 28657 45916 27907 LD 2262 0 2627 5167 2514 CON 1569 1716 3907 3584 2694 Inverclyde The MP elected in 2010 was David Cairns. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 6577 12466 12244 27243 14633 LAB 20993 16979 12705 18809 17372 LD 5007 93 1952 4486 2885 CON 4502 4690 2187 4034 3853 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath The MP elected in 2010 was Gordon Brown. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 6550 13741 18831 29281 17101 LAB 29559 24658 19664 27831 25428 LD 4269 0 1590 4019 2470 CON 4258 4487 3083 4009 3959 Motherwell and Wishaw The MP elected in 2010 was Frank Roy. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 7104 13246 16154 31261 16941 LAB 23910 19724 17139 22798 20893 LD 3840 0 662 3661 2041 CON 3660 3856 2933 3490 3485 Paisley and Renfrewshire South The MP elected in 2010 was Douglas Alexander. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 7228 13508 22327 30254 18329 LAB 23842 19562 23695 25517 23154 LD 3812 0 2493 4080 2596 CON 3979 4179 6069 4258 4621 East Renfrewshire The MP elected in 2010 was Jim Murphy. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 4535 12570 9922 24287 12829 LAB 25987 20511 15343 23413 21314 LD 4720 0 980 4252 2488 CON 15567 15823 11254 14025 14167 Rutherglen and Hamilton West The MP elected in 2010 was Tom Greatrex. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 7564 14940 19438 31812 18439 LAB 28566 23539 19769 28289 25041 LD 5636 0 1634 5581 3213 CON 4540 4775 3911 4496 4431 List of tough constituencies Airdrie and Shotts The MP elected in 2010 was Pamela Nash. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8441 14069 21107 30104 18430 LAB 20849 17013 20215 22369 20112 LD 2898 0 921 3109 1732 CON 3133 3312 2984 3361 3198 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock The MP elected in 2010 was Sandra Osborne. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8276 15481 15964 26432 16538 LAB 21632 16721 11780 19771 17476 LD 4264 0 844 3897 2251 CON 11721 11950 10572 10712 11239 Central Ayrshire The MP elected in 2010 was Brian Donohoe. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8364 15259 20998 27249 17968 LAB 20950 16251 15654 19987 18211 LD 5236 0 1106 4995 2834 CON 8943 9163 10778 8532 9354 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East The MP elected in 2010 was Gregg McClymont. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 9794 16255 20724 27927 18675 LAB 23549 19146 16364 23478 20634 LD 3924 0 1667 3912 2376 CON 3407 3613 3375 3397 3448 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale The MP elected in 2010 was David Mundell. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 4945 12150 19752 21473 14580 LAB 13263 8353 19143 12611 13343 LD 9080 3068 4607 8633 6347 CON 17457 17686 12650 16598 16098 East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow The MP elected in 2010 was Michael McCann. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 11738 19737 23910 33832 22304 LAB 26241 20790 19369 28246 23662 LD 5052 0 521 5438 2753 CON 6613 6868 4923 7118 6381 East Lothian The MP elected in 2010 was Fiona O’Donnell. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 7883 15601 17771 27467 17181 LAB 21919 16659 16776 24346 19925 LD 8288 1848 2392 9206 5434 CON 9661 9907 6316 10731 9154 Edinburgh North and Leith The MP elected in 2010 was Mark Lazarowicz. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 4568 12003 19947 28813 16333 LAB 17740 12673 19526 18790 17182 LD 16016 9812 7526 16964 12580 CON 7079 7316 6174 7498 7017 Edinburgh South The MP elected in 2010 was Ian Murray. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 3354 10231 24887 20340 14703 LAB 15215 10528 21613 14727 15521 LD 14899 9161 10826 14422 12327 CON 9452 9671 12304 9149 10144 Edinburgh South West The MP elected in 2010 was Alistair Darling. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5530 12668 30824 24659 18420 LAB 19473 14609 24440 19884 19602 LD 8194 2238 15761 8367 8640 CON 11026 11253 19254 11259 13198 Glasgow North The MP elected in 2010 was Ann McKechin. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 3530 8179 18436 44811 18739 LAB 13181 10012 18693 21010 15724 LD 9283 5404 2339 14797 7956 CON 2089 2237 3158 3330 2704 Glasgow North West The MP elected in 2010 was John Robertson. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5430 11016 19257 45552 20314 LAB 19233 15426 19239 28055 20488 LD 5622 961 2339 8201 4281 CON 3537 3715 3462 5159 3968 Glasgow South West The MP elected in 2010 was Ian Davidson. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5192 10182 12713 31076 14791 LAB 19863 16462 12466 21405 17549 LD 2870 0 612 3093 1644 CON 2084 2243 1645 2246 2055 Glenrothes The MP elected in 2010 was Lindsay Roy. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8799 15158 26004 27296 19314 LAB 25247 20913 21924 26983 23767 LD 3108 0 1489 3322 1980 CON 2922 3125 3647 3123 3204 Lanark and Hamilton East The MP elected in 2010 was Jimmy Hood. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 9780 17089 29748 31812 22107 LAB 23258 18277 23492 25145 22543 LD 5249 0 744 5675 2917 CON 6981 7214 7350 7547 7273 Paisley and Renfrewshire North The MP elected in 2010 was James Sheridan. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8333 15195 18931 25212 16918 LAB 23613 18936 17879 19258 19922 LD 4597 0 1581 3749 2482 CON 6381 6600 7086 5204 6318 Ross, Skye and Lochaber The MP elected in 2010 was Charles Kennedy. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5263 10733 14956 21292 13061 LAB 5265 1537 4335 4522 3915 LD 18335 13771 9603 15748 14364 CON 4260 4434 2904 3659 3814 List of average constituencies North East Fife The MP elected in 2010 was Sir Menzies Campbell. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5685 11975 14469 28289 15105 LAB 6869 2582 6006 7136 5648 LD 17763 12515 8595 18453 14332 CON 8715 8915 6037 9054 8180 Glasgow Central The MP elected in 2010 was Anas Sarwar. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5357 10158 29409 63792 27179 LAB 15908 12636 25020 38414 22995 LD 5010 1004 2091 12098 5051 CON 2158 2311 4235 5211 3479 Glasgow South The MP elected in 2010 was Tom Harris. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8078 14373 21763 43576 21948 LAB 20736 16446 16692 26783 20164 LD 4739 0 1608 6121 3117 CON 4592 4792 3796 5931 4778 Kilmarnock and Loudoun The MP elected in 2010 was Cathy Jamieson. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 12082 19391 21489 32251 21303 LAB 24460 19479 14615 25578 21033 LD 3419 0 827 3575 1955 CON 6592 6825 4730 6893 6260 Midlothian The MP elected in 2010 was David Hamilton. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8100 14261 12657 26370 15347 LAB 18449 14250 8363 21017 15520 LD 6711 1570 3329 7645 4814 CON 4661 4857 2640 5310 4367 List of easy constituencies Aberdeen North The MP elected in 2010 was Frank Doran. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8385 14304 26484 28781 19489 LAB 16746 12712 17538 24019 17754 LD 7001 2062 4752 10042 5964 CON 4666 4855 5841 6692 5514 Aberdeen South The MP elected in 2010 was Anne Begg. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5102 11858 19273 24213 15112 LAB 15722 11117 12483 14626 13487 LD 12216 6579 5752 11365 8978 CON 8914 9129 5692 8293 8007 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine The MP elected in 2010 was Sir Robert Smith. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 7086 14182 24404 25907 17895 LAB 6159 1323 5720 6530 4933 LD 17362 11441 10603 18408 14454 CON 13678 13904 11002 14502 13272 Argyll and Bute The MP elected in 2010 was Alan Reid. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8563 15660 18885 26324 17358 LAB 10274 5437 10360 10772 9211 LD 14292 8370 3652 14984 10325 CON 10861 11087 6555 11387 9973 North Ayrshire and Arran The MP elected in 2010 was Katy Clark. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 11965 19205 23346 35304 22455 LAB 21860 16926 15561 23845 19548 LD 4630 0 931 5050 2653 CON 7212 7443 5361 7867 6971 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross The MP elected in 2010 was John Thurso. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5516 10033 12423 24840 13203 LAB 7081 4003 4880 8696 6165 LD 11907 8138 5730 14623 10100 CON 3744 3888 2633 4598 3716 East Dunbartonshire The MP elected in 2010 was Jo Swinson. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 5054 12582 23227 25751 16654 LAB 16367 11237 22009 14939 16138 LD 18551 12270 3573 16933 12832 CON 7431 7671 6013 6783 6975 Dundee West The MP elected in 2010 was James McGovern. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 10716 16545 22082 28124 19367 LAB 17994 14022 10005 15155 14294 LD 4233 0 1453 3565 2313 CON 3461 3647 3497 2915 3380 Edinburgh East The MP elected in 2010 was Sheila Gilmore. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8133 14392 34167 27500 21048 LAB 17314 13048 31765 18025 20038 LD 7751 2529 11578 8069 7482 CON 4358 4557 10928 4537 6095 Edinburgh West The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Crockart. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 6115 13407 30985 22615 18281 LAB 12881 7911 24096 13716 14651 LD 16684 10599 15814 17765 15216 CON 10767 10999 15468 11465 12175 Falkirk The MP elected in 2010 was Eric Joyce. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 15364 23336 26936 33659 24824 LAB 23207 17774 18391 26306 21420 LD 5225 0 1220 5923 3092 CON 5698 5952 3965 6459 5519 Gordon The MP elected in 2010 was Malcolm Bruce. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 10827 18485 27569 24418 20325 LAB 9811 4592 6273 9810 7622 LD 17575 11185 7724 17574 13515 CON 9111 9355 7026 9110 8651 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey The MP elected in 2010 was Danny Alexander. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8803 16196 22437 31937 19843 LAB 10407 5369 8678 10417 8718 LD 19172 13004 7443 19191 14703 CON 6278 6513 4868 6284 5986 Linlithgow and East Falkirk The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Connarty. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 13081 21159 33053 36981 26069 LAB 25634 20129 24516 29501 24945 LD 6589 0 1789 7583 3990 CON 6146 6403 5162 7073 6196 Livingston The MP elected in 2010 was Graeme Morrice. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 12424 19945 30256 33191 23954 LAB 23215 18089 21458 28163 22731 LD 5316 0 1464 6449 3307 CON 5158 5398 3992 6257 5201 Ochil and South Perthshire The MP elected in 2010 was Gordon Banks. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 13944 21868 18612 31212 21409 LAB 19131 13731 6635 22543 15510 LD 5754 0 2077 6780 3653 CON 10342 10594 8533 12186 10414 Stirling The MP elected in 2010 was Anne McGuire. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 8091 15445 23251 25010 17949 LAB 19558 14546 15295 19321 17180 LD 6797 661 1941 6715 4029 CON 11254 11488 6827 11118 10172 List of safe constituencies Angus The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Weir. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 15020 20980 15487 24969 19114 LAB 6535 2473 3561 9409 5495 LD 4090 0 1256 5889 2809 CON 11738 11928 6050 16901 11654 Banff and Buchan The MP elected in 2010 was Eilidh Whiteford. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 15868 21907 29768 27408 23738 LAB 5382 1266 4105 10403 5289 LD 4365 0 4033 8437 4209 CON 11841 12033 7290 22888 13513 Dundee East The MP elected in 2010 was Stewart Hosie. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 15350 21719 29102 35571 25436 LAB 13529 9188 9983 17616 12579 LD 4285 0 1588 5579 2863 CON 6177 6380 6160 8043 6690 Moray The MP elected in 2010 was Angus Robertson. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 16273 22711 18467 27232 21171 LAB 7007 2620 3839 10945 6103 LD 5956 584 1421 9303 4316 CON 10683 10888 6324 16687 11146 Na h-Eileanan an Iar The MP elected in 2010 was Angus MacNeil. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 6723 9034 8496 9195 8362 LAB 4838 3263 3724 7750 4894 LD 1097 0 228 1757 771 CON 647 721 563 1036 742 Perth and North Perthshire The MP elected in 2010 was Peter Wishart. Party 2010 Swing 2011 2014 Avg SNP 19118 26696 23577 26613 24001 LAB 7923 2758 3999 11142 6456 LD 5954 0 1948 8373 4069 CON 14739 14980 10835 20727 15320 Share Button TwitterFacebookGoogle PlusPinterestLinkedinStumbleUponDiggRedditDelicious This entry was posted in opinion polls, SNP, Westminster. Bookmark the permalink.
Posted on: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 14:25:05 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015