Population boom: 40% of all humans will be African by end of century Geoffrey York JOHANNESBURG — The Globe and Mail Published Tuesday, Aug. 12 2014, 2:30 AM EDT Last updated Tuesday, Aug. 12 2014, 7:07 AM EDT 45 comments A seismic shift in demographic trends is transforming the world into an increasingly African place, creating huge economic opportunities, as well as new risks for political instability and extreme poverty, a United Nations agency says. “The future of humanity is increasingly African,” says a report by the UN children’s agency to be issued on Tuesday, based on revised population forecasts that reveal an unprecedented demographic shift this century. Africa accounted for only 9 per cent of the world’s population in 1950, but by the end of this century about 40 per cent of all humans (and nearly half of all children) will be African, heralding one of the fastest and most radical demographic changes in history, the report says. While every other continent is seeing a slower rise in births, or even a decline, UNICEF projects that 1.8 billion babies will be born in Africa over the next 35 years, and the total African population will nearly quadruple to about 4.2 billion by the end of the century. Africa could reap a massive demographic dividend from its bigger labour force and relatively fewer dependents, the report says. The population boom could “transform the continent, breaking centuries-old cycles of poverty and inequality.” But the opposite is also possible, and requires urgent discussion soon, UNICEF warns. “Unless investment in the continent’s children is prioritized, the sheer burden of population expansion has the potential to undermine attempts to eradicate poverty through economic growth, and worse, could result in rising poverty and marginalization of many if growth were to falter.” The new projections are based on the latest revised numbers from the UN’s population division, showing an even stronger shift in child demographics in Africa’s direction. Until recently, the UN had predicted that one-third of the world’s children would be living in Africa by mid-century, yet that prediction is now believed to be an underestimate. Instead, 37 per cent of the world’s children will be African by 2050, and more than 40 per cent of births will take place in Africa. The population explosion will be biggest in West Africa, especially in Nigeria. By 2050, Nigeria alone will account for an astounding one-tenth of all births in the world, the report says, and its total population will reach nearly a billion by the end of the century. Fertility rates are declining in Africa, but they remain far higher than anywhere else in the world, the report says. At the same time, life expectancy and child survival rates have drastically improved in Africa, helping explain the population boom. “Within 20 years, Africa will have its first generation of children who can expect to reach pensionable age,” UNICEF says, predicting that African life expectancy will reach 65 years in the next two decades. (By contrast, in the 1950s, African life expectancy was less than 40.) As part of these trends, Africa will become increasingly urbanized and crowded. In 1950, its population density was just eight persons per square kilometre. By mid-century, Africa will hold 80 people per square kilometre. Its megacities will soar in size, with the population of Lagos nearly doubling to 24 million by 2030 and Kinshasa growing from 12 million to 20 million in the same period. Much of the population boom is occurring in the poorest and most fragile countries. The world’s highest fertility rate is believed to be in the impoverished West African nation of Niger, where the average woman has 7.5 children, the UNICEF report says. The next-highest fertility rate is in a neighbouring country, Mali, where the average woman has 6.8 children. The report calls for “courageous and determined action” to face the challenges of the African population boom. It cites, for example, the continued lack of contraception for many African women. About a quarter of all women in marriages or unions in sub-Saharan Africa lack the reproductive heath services they need, the report says. It also calls for stronger programs to improve the education of girls and to end child marriage. Follow Geoffrey York on Twitter: @geoffreyyork ` nytimes/2014/08/13/us/if-they-gunned-me-down-protest-on-twitter.html?_r=0 2. After Shooting, a Twitter Hashtag Questions Portrayal of Blacks By TANZINA VEGAAUG. 12, 2014 Photo Tyler Atkins posted this picture on Twitter in response to the hashtag, #iftheygunnedmedown. Continue reading the main storyShare This Page · EMAIL · FACEBOOK · TWITTER · SAVE · MORE Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story Top Stories This article and others like it are part of our new subscription. Learn More » Continue reading the main story When Tyler Atkins heard about the shooting of Michael Brown, 18, an unarmed black teenager in Ferguson, Mo., he posted on Twitter a picture of himself in a tuxedo, with a saxophone around his neck, next to a photograph of himself dressed in a black T-shirt with a blue bandanna tied around his head and his finger pointed at the camera. Continue reading the main story RELATED COVERAGE Protesters confronted a line of law enforcement officials on Monday during a protest in Ferguson, Mo. Like hundreds of young African-Americans, he placed his pictures under the hashtag#IfTheyGunnedMeDown, protesting Mr. Brown’s killing by a police officer and the way young black men are depicted in the news media. He said Mr. Brown’s identity was distorted and filtered through negative stereotypes, and that the same would have been done to him with the bandanna image if he found himself the victim of a similar tragedy. The first picture was taken after a jazz concert at the High School for the Performing and Visual Arts in Houston, Tex., where Mr. Atkins, a senior, studies music. The other was taken during a recording for a rap video he made with friends for a school math project. “Had the media gained a hold of this picture, I feel I it would be used to portray that I was in a gang, which is not true at all,” Mr. Atkins, 17, wrote in an email. The speed with which the shooting of Mr. Brown has resonated on social media has helped propel and transform a local shooting into a national cause, as African-American commenters draw attention to continued incidents of blacks being shot by police and the media portrayals of young black men. “This affects me deeply because the stories of Mike Brown, Renisha McBride, Trayvon Martin, Sean Bell, Amadou Diallo and many more could have been me,” Mr. Atkins wrote, referring to the shooting deaths of blacks, some at the hands of police. Local authorities in Ferguson have said that social media contributed to some of the violence that took place after the shooting. Commenters on Twitter have coordinated a series of vigils called the National Moment of Silence or #NMOS14, which are meant to commemorate victims of police brutality. The vigils are expected to be held on Thursday evening in cities around the country, including St. Louis. Brittney Gault, 28, a student at DePaul University, said the#IfTheyGunnedMeDown campaign gained popularity because of the strength of black Twitter users collectively known as “Black Twitter.” “They are really a media response team,” Ms. Gault said. “Everybody is tapped into Black Twitter.” Ms. Gault posted a photograph of herself at a shooting range, her head turned to the camera, a smile on her face, and a handgun firmly in her right hand. In her second photograph, Ms. Gault holds a microphone as she gives a talk; her hair is tied back into a tight headwrap. “Those two pictures are in the public domain, they are on my Facebook page,” Ms. Gault said. “If I was gunned down, those are the images that would be circulated.” Since the IfTheyGunnedMeDown campaign began, the phrase has been used on Twitter more than 158,000 times. The image of Mr. Brown that spurred the campaign on Twitter showed him with the fingers of his right hand extended in what some considered a peace sign, but which others called a gang sign. A spokeswoman for NBC News, one of the outlets that published the photograph online, said it was taken from Mr. Brown’s personal Facebook page, where it was his profile picture. In a subsequent article about Mr. Brown’s killing, the network used a different photograph of him that showed him wearing headphones and gazing at the camera. Continue reading the main story Tosan Tutse-Tonwe, 32, a blogger, consultant and co-founder of a nonprofit group called Act 4 Accountability, who participated in the campaign, said photographs remove context from a situation, particularly when the public is prone to thinking black men are menacing and therefore deserving of violence. Mr. Tutse-Tonwe posted a photograph of himself wearing a T-shirt from his nonprofit and another with a black male friend who is flashing peace signs as Mr. Tutse-Tonwe gives a stern look to the camera. Mr. Tutse-Tonwe said he chose to post the photograph with his friend after the image of Mr. Brown making the same hand gesture was circulated. “Mike was throwing up a peace sign and people thought it was a gang sign? You’ve got to be kidding me,” Mr. Tutse-Tonwe said. “People make these leaps and there’s no basis in them and they go unchecked.” Continue reading the main story Jeremy Connally, 24, a student studying computer science at University of Texas at Arlington, agreed. “They’re portrayed as if they deserved it, cop versus robbers, good guys versus bad guys.” In one of Mr. Connally’s photos, a red scarf is tied around his nose and mouth. His eyes are staring directly at the camera. In the other, a rabbit is nestled against his face. Take a look around
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